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Representing Uncertainty in Physical Security Risk Assessment: Considering Uncertainty in Security System Design by Quantitative Analysis and the Security Margin Concept

Lichte, Daniel and Witte, Dustin and Termin, Thomas and Wolf, Kai-Dietrich (2021) Representing Uncertainty in Physical Security Risk Assessment: Considering Uncertainty in Security System Design by Quantitative Analysis and the Security Margin Concept. European Journal for Security Research. Springer. doi: 10.1007/s41125-021-00075-3. ISSN 2365-0931.

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Official URL: https://link.springer.com/10.1007/s41125-021-00075-3

Abstract

The importance of (physical) security is increasingly acknowledged by society and the scientific community. In light of increasing terrorist threat levels, numerous security assessments of critical infrastructures are conducted in practice and researchers propose new approaches continuously. While practical security risk assessments (SRA) use mostly qualitative methods, most of the lately proposed approaches are based on quantitative metrics. Due to little evidence of actual attacks, both qualitative and quantitative approaches suffer from the fundamental problem of inherent uncertainties regarding threats and capabilities of security measures as a result from vague data or the usage of expert knowledge. In quantitative analysis, such uncertainties may be represented by, e.g., probability distributions to reflect the knowledge on security measure performance available. This paper focuses on the impact of these uncertainties in security assessment and their consideration in system design. We show this influence by comparing the results of a scalar evaluation that does not take into account uncertainties and another evaluation based on distributed input values. In addition, we show that the influence is concentrated on certain barriers of the security system. Specifically, we discuss the robustness of the system by conducting quantitative vulnerability assessment as part of the SRA process of an airport structure example. Based on these results, we propose the concept of a security margin. This concept accounts for the uncertain knowledge of the input parameters in the design of the security system and minimizes the influence of these uncertainties on the actual system performance. We show how this approach can be used for vulnerability assessment by applying it to the initially assessed configuration of the airport structure. The results of this case study support our assumptions that the security margin can help in targeted uncertainty consideration leading to reduced system vulnerability.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/147225/
Document Type:Article
Title:Representing Uncertainty in Physical Security Risk Assessment: Considering Uncertainty in Security System Design by Quantitative Analysis and the Security Margin Concept
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iD
Lichte, Danieldaniel.lichte (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-3314-5823
Witte, DustinBergische Universität WuppertalUNSPECIFIED
Termin, ThomasBergische Universität WuppertalUNSPECIFIED
Wolf, Kai-DietrichBergische Universität WuppertalUNSPECIFIED
Date:2021
Journal or Publication Title:European Journal for Security Research
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:No
In ISI Web of Science:No
DOI :10.1007/s41125-021-00075-3
Publisher:Springer
ISSN:2365-0931
Status:Published
Keywords:Security Uncertainty Security Risk Assessment Security Margin Vulnerability Critical Infrastructures
HGF - Research field:other
HGF - Program:other
HGF - Program Themes:other
DLR - Research area:no assignment
DLR - Program:no assignment
DLR - Research theme (Project):no assignment
Location: Rhein-Sieg-Kreis
Institutes and Institutions:Institute for the Protection of Terrestrial Infrastructures > Resilience – Models and Methods
Deposited By: Lichte, Dr.-Ing. Daniel
Deposited On:13 Dec 2021 11:33
Last Modified:13 Dec 2021 11:33

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