Advanced weather forecasting for Renewable Energy System applications: Multi-source observations to improve solar forecasting within the Smart4Res project

Abstract

A huge amount of observations (radiometers, ceilometers, sky images, satellites as well as solar plants) are used to derive solar nowcasts as well as the initial state of the atmosphere used by improved numerical weather models. The evolution of which is then predicted by NWP and LES. For solar power prediction, both observations from the ground and from satellite are used, mostly to identify clouds and predict the displacement over time and space as well as their impact on solar radiation. Smart4RES develops complementary methods to blend information from multiple source of data and to propose novel approaches towards a seamless view of RES forecasting at various temporal and spatial granularity levels. As an example, Smart4RES new approach to data assimilation combines the best of the observations with the best of the physical models to produce optimized temporal and spatial irradiance maps and forecasts. Such detail can be useful for the optimized operation of solar power plants and grids with significant solar power penetration.