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Future trends and scenarios in aviation

Grimme, Wolfgang (2021) Future trends and scenarios in aviation. Climate protection in aviation and maritime transport - Roadmaps to accelerate the introduction of e-fuels, 16. Nov. 2021, Online.

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The presentation discusses future energy trends and scenarios in aviation. Aviation has a significant share in global oil demand. Typically, aviation forecasts and scenarios predict traffic development, but not energy consumption. Traffic forecasts predict medium- and long-term aviation demand growth between 2.8 % and 5.2 %. Updated medium- and long-term forecasts - considering Covid-19 - expect a small decline in growth rates (e.g. Boeing CMO 2021 4.0% p.a. vs. CMO 2019 4.6 %). Aviation has increased energy efficiency and decoupled energy consumption from traffic development. Main contributing factors were engine technology and aerodynamics, flight efficiency by operations and air traffic management. As things stand, alternative energy carriers will be limited in their commercial use to small regional aircraft (battery-electric power) or short-medium haul jets (hydrogen), if at all. Sustainable aviation fuels are the most likely alternative for a decarbonization of aviation in a reasonable timeframe.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/145688/
Document Type:Conference or Workshop Item (Speech)
Title:Future trends and scenarios in aviation
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iDORCID Put Code
Grimme, WolfgangUNSPECIFIEDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-8498-6281UNSPECIFIED
Date:16 November 2021
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:No
In ISI Web of Science:No
Keywords:aviation, air transport, energy demand, growth, sustainable aviation fuels, SAF, e-fuels
Event Title:Climate protection in aviation and maritime transport - Roadmaps to accelerate the introduction of e-fuels
Event Location:Online
Event Type:national Conference
Event Dates:16. Nov. 2021
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Transport
HGF - Program Themes:Transport System
DLR - Research area:Transport
DLR - Program:V VS - Verkehrssystem
DLR - Research theme (Project):V - Ökonver II
Location: Köln-Porz
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Air Transport and Airport Research > Air Transport Economics
Deposited By: Maertens, Dr. Sven
Deposited On:16 Nov 2021 09:43
Last Modified:16 Nov 2021 09:43

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