Herrerías Azcué, Martin and Hammer, Annette (2021) Probabilistic Estimation of Irradiance Components: A State Space Framework to Integrate Empirical Models, Forecasts, and Imperfect Sensor Measurements. SWC Solar World Congress 2021, www.swc2021.org, 25.-29. Oktober 2021, online. (Submitted)
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Abstract
This work explores the general problem of combining an arbitrary set of noisy ground sensor measurements (horizontal, tilted, diffuse, direct, satellite-derived, etc. all for the same point) together with empirical and physical models (separation, transposition, and forecasting), to estimate a discrete set of irradiance components (in the simplest case direct and isotropic diffuse). We propose formulating the problem in a recursive Bayesian state estimation framework: calculating the joint probability distribution of a state vector of irradiance components, given the measurements, and considering distribution priors based on the models. Variations on a simple model are tested on data for two sites and compared against a deterministic benchmark.
Item URL in elib: | https://elib.dlr.de/145453/ | |||||||||
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Document Type: | Conference or Workshop Item (Speech) | |||||||||
Title: | Probabilistic Estimation of Irradiance Components: A State Space Framework to Integrate Empirical Models, Forecasts, and Imperfect Sensor Measurements | |||||||||
Authors: |
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Date: | October 2021 | |||||||||
Refereed publication: | No | |||||||||
Open Access: | No | |||||||||
Gold Open Access: | No | |||||||||
In SCOPUS: | No | |||||||||
In ISI Web of Science: | No | |||||||||
Status: | Submitted | |||||||||
Keywords: | data assimilation, state-space, inverse transposition, separation, recursive Bayesian estimation | |||||||||
Event Title: | SWC Solar World Congress 2021, www.swc2021.org | |||||||||
Event Location: | online | |||||||||
Event Type: | international Conference | |||||||||
Event Dates: | 25.-29. Oktober 2021 | |||||||||
Organizer: | The International Solar Energy Society (ISES) | |||||||||
HGF - Research field: | Energy | |||||||||
HGF - Program: | Energy System Design | |||||||||
HGF - Program Themes: | Digitalization and System Technology | |||||||||
DLR - Research area: | Energy | |||||||||
DLR - Program: | E SY - Energy System Technology and Analysis | |||||||||
DLR - Research theme (Project): | E - Energy System Technology | |||||||||
Location: | Oldenburg | |||||||||
Institutes and Institutions: | Institute of Networked Energy Systems > Energy Systems Analysis, OL | |||||||||
Deposited By: | Hammer, Annette | |||||||||
Deposited On: | 15 Nov 2021 14:32 | |||||||||
Last Modified: | 19 Nov 2021 09:32 |
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