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Probabilistic Estimation of Irradiance Components: A State Space Framework to Integrate Empirical Models, Forecasts, and Imperfect Sensor Measurements

Herrerías Azcué, Martin and Hammer, Annette (2021) Probabilistic Estimation of Irradiance Components: A State Space Framework to Integrate Empirical Models, Forecasts, and Imperfect Sensor Measurements. SWC Solar World Congress 2021, www.swc2021.org, 25.-29. Oktober 2021, online. (Submitted)

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Abstract

This work explores the general problem of combining an arbitrary set of noisy ground sensor measurements (horizontal, tilted, diffuse, direct, satellite-derived, etc. all for the same point) together with empirical and physical models (separation, transposition, and forecasting), to estimate a discrete set of irradiance components (in the simplest case direct and isotropic diffuse). We propose formulating the problem in a recursive Bayesian state estimation framework: calculating the joint probability distribution of a state vector of irradiance components, given the measurements, and considering distribution priors based on the models. Variations on a simple model are tested on data for two sites and compared against a deterministic benchmark.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/145453/
Document Type:Conference or Workshop Item (Speech)
Title:Probabilistic Estimation of Irradiance Components: A State Space Framework to Integrate Empirical Models, Forecasts, and Imperfect Sensor Measurements
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iD
Herrerías Azcué, Martinherrerias (at) hlrs.deUNSPECIFIED
Hammer, AnnetteUNSPECIFIEDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-5630-3620
Date:October 2021
Refereed publication:No
Open Access:No
Gold Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:No
In ISI Web of Science:No
Status:Submitted
Keywords:data assimilation, state-space, inverse transposition, separation, recursive Bayesian estimation
Event Title:SWC Solar World Congress 2021, www.swc2021.org
Event Location:online
Event Type:international Conference
Event Dates:25.-29. Oktober 2021
Organizer:The International Solar Energy Society (ISES)
HGF - Research field:Energy
HGF - Program:Energy System Design
HGF - Program Themes:Digitalization and System Technology
DLR - Research area:Energy
DLR - Program:E SY - Energy System Technology and Analysis
DLR - Research theme (Project):E - Energy System Technology
Location: Oldenburg
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Networked Energy Systems > Energy Systems Analysis, OL
Deposited By: Hammer, Annette
Deposited On:15 Nov 2021 14:32
Last Modified:19 Nov 2021 09:32

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