A Hybrid Solar Irradiance Nowcasting Approach: Combining All Sky Imager Systems and Persistence Irradiance Models for Increased Accuracy

Kurzfassung

The share of distributed solar power generation is continuously growing. This increase, combined with the intermittent nature of the solar resource creates new challenges for all relevant stakeholders, from generation to transmission and demand. Insufficient consideration of intra-minute and intra-hour variabilities might lead to grid instabilities. Therefore, the relevance of nowcasts (shortest-term forecasts) is steadily increasing. Nowcasts are suitable for fine-grained control applications to operate solar power plants in a grid-friendly way and to secure stable operations of electrical grids. In space and time, highly resolved nowcasts can be obtained by all sky imager (ASI) systems. ASI systems create hemispherical sky images. The associated software analyzes the sky conditions and derives solar irradiance nowcasts. Accuracy is the decisive factor for the effective use of nowcasts. Therefore, the goal of this work is to increase the nowcast accuracy by combining ASI nowcasts and persistence nowcasts, which persist with the prevailing irradiance conditions, while maintaining the spatial coverage and resolution obtained by the ASI system. This hybrid approach combines the strengths while reducing the respective weaknesses of both approaches. Results of a validation show reductions of the root mean square deviation of up to 12\% due to the hybrid approach