elib
DLR-Header
DLR-Logo -> http://www.dlr.de
DLR Portal Home | Imprint | Privacy Policy | Contact | Deutsch
Fontsize: [-] Text [+]

Data-driven methodology for uncertainty quantification of aircraft trajectory predictions

Guemes, Alejandro and Polaina, Manuel and Gonzalez Arribas, Daniel and Soler, Manuel and Pons-Prats, Jordi and Prats, Xavier and Koyuncu, Emre and Tutku Altun, Arinc and Kuenz, Alexander and Zopp, Raimund and Delahaye, Daniel and Munoz, Andres (2021) Data-driven methodology for uncertainty quantification of aircraft trajectory predictions. In: 40th AIAA/IEEE Digital Avionics Systems Conference, DASC 2021. DASC 2021, 3.-7. Okt. 2021, San Antonio, USA. ISSN 2155-7195.

Full text not available from this repository.

Official URL: https://2021.dasconline.org/

Abstract

One of the main objectives of the so-called trajectory-based operations (TBO) concept is to increase the predictability of the aircraft behavior within the air traffic management (ATM) system, thus reducing inefficiencies and increasing the robustness and resiliency of operations. Most systems involved in TBO, such as flight planning systems or on-ground trajectory predictors, focus on proposing deterministic trajectories in the strategic phase and do not take into account the uncertain factors that affect the trajectory prediction process. While TBO is enabled by the automated updating of trajectories in reaction to developing uncertainties, an excessive frequency of trajectory updates in later planning and tactical phases could lead to degraded stability, resulting in an overall decrease of the performance of the ATM network. The use of probabilistic trajectories instead of deterministic ones would allow to reduce the frequency of these updates, as well as increasing to increase the situational awareness of the ATM system. Nonetheless, the analysis of the uncertainty affecting the prediction of a flight is a complex problem that has been tackled in the literature. The main difficulty regarding aircraft trajectory uncertainty is that it cannot be estimated in a post-processing study based on the comparison between the predicted and the actual trajectories. This is because the uncertainty is represented by the estimation of those potential deviations in an a priori phase, based on the identification and quantification of the possible sources impacting that uncertainty and the propagation of the joint effect of those sources to obtain the probability distribution describing the potential trajectory.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/145075/
Document Type:Conference or Workshop Item (Speech)
Title:Data-driven methodology for uncertainty quantification of aircraft trajectory predictions
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iD
Guemes, AlejandroMCAUNSPECIFIED
Polaina, ManuelBRTEUNSPECIFIED
Gonzalez Arribas, DanielUC3MUNSPECIFIED
Soler, ManuelUC3MUNSPECIFIED
Pons-Prats, JordiUPCUNSPECIFIED
Prats, XavierUPCUNSPECIFIED
Koyuncu, EmreITUUNSPECIFIED
Tutku Altun, ArincITUUNSPECIFIED
Kuenz, AlexanderAlexander.Kuenz (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-5192-8894
Zopp, RaimundFlightkeysUNSPECIFIED
Delahaye, DanielENACUNSPECIFIED
Munoz, AndresBRTEUNSPECIFIED
Date:3 October 2021
Journal or Publication Title:40th AIAA/IEEE Digital Avionics Systems Conference, DASC 2021
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:No
Gold Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:No
ISSN:2155-7195
Status:Published
Keywords:Resilience, START project, TBO
Event Title:DASC 2021
Event Location:San Antonio, USA
Event Type:international Conference
Event Dates:3.-7. Okt. 2021
Organizer:IEEE/AIAA
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Aeronautics
HGF - Program Themes:Air Transportation and Impact
DLR - Research area:Aeronautics
DLR - Program:L AI - Air Transportation and Impact
DLR - Research theme (Project):L - Integrated Flight Guidance
Location: Braunschweig
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Flight Guidance > Pilotenassistenzsysteme
Deposited By: Kuenz, Dr. Alexander
Deposited On:04 Nov 2021 16:46
Last Modified:10 Feb 2022 08:43

Repository Staff Only: item control page

Browse
Search
Help & Contact
Information
electronic library is running on EPrints 3.3.12
Copyright © 2008-2017 German Aerospace Center (DLR). All rights reserved.