Purchase intention and actual purchase of cargo cycles: Influencing factors and policy insights

Abstract

To support the penetration of cargo cycles in commercial transport, this research aims at identifying the significant influencing factors for their purchase, using data from Europe's largest cargo cycle testing project 'Ich entlaste Städte'. This is achieved by developing binary logit models for the intention to purchase (stated at the end of a 3-month vehicle trial), and the actual purchase decision made (queried three months or later, after the end of the trial). Prior to the estimation of the logit models, latent variables have been constructed using explanatory factor analysis. Based on the estimation results, factors that influence the actual purchase decision include catchment area of cargo cycle trips, daily usage during the trial phase, trial phase season, type of cargo cycle tested, mode substituted by cargo cycles during the trial phase and business sector. Furthermore, four other factors, which are latent variables constructed through exploratory factor analysis, are found to have significant influence: perception of operational, soft and cost benefits, as well as importance of deterioration of conditions for conventional vehicles. Based on the influence of these factors, policy measures are suggested under the following categories: (i) Regulation, (ii) Infrastructure, (iii) Finance, (iv) Campaigns and (v) Trial schemes. The data from the project shows the existence of a difference between the intention and the actual purchase decision (around 50% higher intent compared to realized purchase). This implies that there is a need to convert intention to actual decision, when making conclusions based on intention. A comparison, made between the binary logit models of intention and actual purchase decision, brings out the reality that the latter is influenced by hard facts like the deteriorating conditions (e.g., vehicle access restrictions) for conventional vehicles, while the former is influenced by operational concerns towards cargo cycles. This observation suggests the necessity of formulating measures to foster the market penetration of cargo cycles.