Estimation and Simulation of a Gas Demand Time Series for the European NUTS 3 Regions

Abstract

With the goal of becoming climate-neutral by 2050, in past years Europe has increased its share of electricity generated by renewables. However, the demand for renewable-generated electricity should be decoupled from the time and place of supply. Technologies such as Power-to-gas technology allow to convert the electricity surplus to gas and then transport and store it using existing infrastructure. Hence, an appropriate model of the gas infrastructure is paramount, with gas demand as one of its important aspects. While figures regarding gas demand at national levels are available, there is lack of data about European regional gas consumption. The aim of this thesis is to address that lack by the estimation of a gas demand time series in Europe with a high spatial resolution. For this, three research questions must be answered: (1) what are the variables that drive the gas consumption in Europe? (2) how is gas demand distributed regionally, and (3) how is gas demand distributed temporally? In this thesis, a research on demand drivers is performed to answer these questions. Next, taking a top-down approach, the annual gas demand at national level of three economy sectors is disaggregated to regional level, using the corresponding statistical demand driver datasets. Finally, and also with a top-down approach, temporal demand driver datasets such as ambient temperature and type of day are used to estimate daily gas consumption at a regional level. The results obtained in this thesis are validated and optimized with the help of a different study. They show that, in the residential sector, gas consumption is allocated not only in heavily populated areas, but that regional differences in ambient temperature or gas usage also play a role, with high residential gas consumption observed in Northern Italy and areas of the United Kingdom. Gas demand is in the commercial sector is found to be highly concentrated in major urban centers regardless of their geographical location, with large consumption in cities of Italy, Spain, Germany, and the Netherlands. The industry sector presents important gas consumption figures in regions of Spain and France with a combination of energy-intensive and non-intensive activities. Finally, the seasonal effect is observed in the residential and commercial sector load profiles of the European countries analyzed, being more perceivable in Northern Europe