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It Is Still Possible to Achieve the Paris Climate Agreement: Regional, Sectoral, and Land-Use Pathways

Teske, Sven and Pregger, Thomas and Simon, Sonja and Naegler, Tobias and Pagenkopf, Johannes and Deniz, Özcan and van den Adel, Bent and Dooley, Kate and Meinshausen, Malte (2021) It Is Still Possible to Achieve the Paris Climate Agreement: Regional, Sectoral, and Land-Use Pathways. Energies, 14 (8), p. 2103. Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI). doi: 10.3390/en14082103. ISSN 1996-1073.

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Official URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/8/2103?type=check_update&version=1


It is still possible to comply with the Paris Climate Agreement to maintain a global temperature ‘well below +2.0 °C’ above pre-industrial levels. We present two global non-overshoot pathways (+2.0 °C and +1.5 °C) with regional decarbonization targets for the four primary energy sectors—power, heating, transportation, and industry—in 5-year steps to 2050. We use normative scenarios to illustrate the effects of efficiency measures and renewable energy use, describe the roles of increased electrification of the final energy demand and synthetic fuels, and quantify the resulting electricity load increases for 72 sub-regions. Non-energy scenarios include a phase-out of net emissions from agriculture, forestry, and other land uses, reductions in non-carbon greenhouse gases, and land restoration to scale up atmospheric CO2 removal, estimated at −377 Gt CO2 to 2100. An estimate of the COVID-19 effects on the global energy demand is included and a sensitivity analysis describes the impacts if implementation is delayed by 5, 7, or 10 years, which would significantly reduce the likelihood of achieving the 1.5 °C goal. The analysis applies a model network consisting of energy system, power system, transport, land-use, and climate models

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/142923/
Document Type:Article
Title:It Is Still Possible to Achieve the Paris Climate Agreement: Regional, Sectoral, and Land-Use Pathways
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iD
Teske, SvenUniversity of Technology Sydney (UTS), AustraliaUNSPECIFIED
Pregger, ThomasThomas.Pregger (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-6728-7451
Simon, SonjaSonja.Simon (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-2775-5457
Naegler, TobiasTobias.Naegler (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-2390-1672
Pagenkopf, JohannesJohannes.Pagenkopf (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-6265-7348
Deniz, ÖzcanOezcan.Deniz (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
van den Adel, BentBent.vandenadel (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Dooley, Katekate.dooley (at) unibelb.edu.auUNSPECIFIED
Meinshausen, Maltemalte.meinshausen (at) unimelb.edu.auUNSPECIFIED
Journal or Publication Title:Energies
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
DOI :10.3390/en14082103
Page Range:p. 2103
Publisher:Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI)
Keywords:climate change; Paris Agreement; 100% renewable energy; 1.5 °C mitigation pathway; energy transition; energy scenario; GHG mitigation; CO2 emission; non-energy emission; open access book
HGF - Research field:Energy
HGF - Program:Energy System Design
HGF - Program Themes:Energy System Transformation
DLR - Research area:Energy
DLR - Program:E SY - Energy System Technology and Analysis
DLR - Research theme (Project):E - Systems Analysis and Technology Assessment
Location: Stuttgart
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Networked Energy Systems > Energy Systems Analysis, ST
Institute of Vehicle Concepts > Fahrzeugsysteme und Technologiebewertung
Deposited By: Simon, Dr. Sonja
Deposited On:12 Jul 2021 10:22
Last Modified:28 Oct 2021 13:41

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