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Forecasting Global Thermospheric Neutral Density through Calibration and Data Assimilation of GRACE Measurements into the NRLMSISE-00 model

Kosary, Mona und Forootan, Ehsan und Farzaneh, Saeed und Vielberg, Kristin und Kodikara, Timothy und Schumacher, Maike (2021) Forecasting Global Thermospheric Neutral Density through Calibration and Data Assimilation of GRACE Measurements into the NRLMSISE-00 model. IAG 2021 Scientific Assembly of the International Association of Geodesy, 28 Jun - 02 Jul 2021, Beijing, China.

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Offizielle URL: https://www.iag2021.com

Kurzfassung

The uncertainty in thermospheric neutral density (TND) estimates is one of the largest and persistent sources of uncertainty in orbit determination and prediction (OD/OP) of low Earth orbit space objects. The TNDs required for these applications are typically obtained from corresponding models. However, the simulation and forecasting skills of these models are limited due to the model structures and the calibration period of the model parameters. Here, we present an Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF)-based Calibration and Data Assimilation (C/DA) approach that provides the opportunity to update the model's states and simultaneously calibrates the model’ s most sensitive parameters, such as those related to solar radiation and geomagnetic activity as well as those controlling the calculation of exospheric temperature. The advantageof this approachis that the calibrated parameters can be applied to simulate the global map of global TNDs and forecasting them in future. In this study, we investigate the improvement of the NRLMSISE-00 model after implementing the C/DA scheme using TNDsderived from the accelerometer measurements of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment mission (GRACE) during February 2015 with a wide range of solar activity. We demonstrate the forecasting skills of C/DA covering the altitude of 300-600 km, though the GRACE measurements were introduced at the altitude of 410 km during the C/DA period. The calibrated model are validated along the Swarm-A, -B, and -C with mean altitude of 480, 480 and 528 km,respectively. The results indicate that our TND forecasts agree well with the POD-derived densities. After implementing the C/DA, the root-mean-squares of error (RMSE) of TND forecasts has been reduced comparedto the original NRLMSISE-00 densities,i.e., 51, 57 and 54% along the Swarm-A,-B and -C, respectively. The numerical assessment is useful to demonstrate the capability of the C/DA technique in reducing the modelling errors and their value for forecasting TNDs for applications such as collision analysis.

elib-URL des Eintrags:https://elib.dlr.de/142875/
Dokumentart:Konferenzbeitrag (Vortrag)
Titel:Forecasting Global Thermospheric Neutral Density through Calibration and Data Assimilation of GRACE Measurements into the NRLMSISE-00 model
Autoren:
AutorenInstitution oder E-Mail-AdresseAutoren-ORCID-iDORCID Put Code
Kosary, MonaSchool of Surveying and Geospatial Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran 113654563, IranNICHT SPEZIFIZIERTNICHT SPEZIFIZIERT
Forootan, EhsanUniversity of Aalborg, Department of Planning, Rendsburggade 14, 9000 Aalborg, Denmarkhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-3055-041XNICHT SPEZIFIZIERT
Farzaneh, SaeedSchool of Surveying and Geospatial Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran 113654563, IranNICHT SPEZIFIZIERTNICHT SPEZIFIZIERT
Vielberg, KristinInstitute of Geodesy and Geoinformation, University of Bonn, Nussallee 17, 53115 Bonn, GermanyNICHT SPEZIFIZIERTNICHT SPEZIFIZIERT
Kodikara, TimothyTimothy.Kodikara (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-4099-9966NICHT SPEZIFIZIERT
Schumacher, MaikeUniversity of Aalborg, Department of Planning, Rendsburggade 14, 9000 Aalborg, DenmarkNICHT SPEZIFIZIERTNICHT SPEZIFIZIERT
Datum:Juni 2021
Referierte Publikation:Nein
Open Access:Nein
Gold Open Access:Nein
In SCOPUS:Nein
In ISI Web of Science:Nein
Status:veröffentlicht
Stichwörter:Thermospheric Neutral Density, Low Earth Orbit , Calibration and Data Assimilation (C/DA), Accelerometer Measurements, GRACE, Swarm, NRLMSISE-00
Veranstaltungstitel:IAG 2021 Scientific Assembly of the International Association of Geodesy
Veranstaltungsort:Beijing, China
Veranstaltungsart:internationale Konferenz
Veranstaltungsdatum:28 Jun - 02 Jul 2021
Veranstalter :International Association of Geodesy
HGF - Forschungsbereich:Luftfahrt, Raumfahrt und Verkehr
HGF - Programm:Raumfahrt
HGF - Programmthema:Kommunikation, Navigation, Quantentechnologien
DLR - Schwerpunkt:Raumfahrt
DLR - Forschungsgebiet:R KNQ - Kommunikation, Navigation, Quantentechnologie
DLR - Teilgebiet (Projekt, Vorhaben):R - Ionosphäre
Standort: Neustrelitz
Institute & Einrichtungen:Institut für Solar-Terrestrische Physik > Solar-Terrestrische Kopplungsprozesse
Hinterlegt von: Kodikara, Dr Timothy
Hinterlegt am:16 Aug 2021 12:47
Letzte Änderung:16 Aug 2021 12:47

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