An ensemble of state-of-the-art ash dispersion models: towards probabilistic forecasts to increase the resilience of air traffic against volcanic eruptions

Plu, M. and Scherllin-Pirscher, B. and Arnold Arias, D. and Baro, R. and Bigeard, G. and Bugliaro Goggia, Luca and Carvalho, A. and El Amraoui, L. and Eschbacher, K. and Hirtl, M. and Maurer, C. and Mulder, M. and Piontek, Dennis and Robertson, L. and Rokitansky, C.-H. and Zobl, F. and Zopp, R. (2021) An ensemble of state-of-the-art ash dispersion models: towards probabilistic forecasts to increase the resilience of air traffic against volcanic eruptions. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS), 21, pp. 2973-2992. Copernicus Publications. doi: 10.5194/nhess-21-2973-2021. ISSN 1561-8633.

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Official URL: https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/21/2973/2021/

Abstract

High-quality volcanic ash forecasts are crucial to minimize the economic impact of volcanic hazards on air traffic. Decision-making is usually based on numerical dispersion modelling with only one model realization. Given the inherent uncertainty of such an approach, a multi-model multi-source term ensemble has been designed and evaluated for the Eyjafjallajökull eruption in May 2010. Its use for flight planning is discussed. Two multi-model ensembles were built: the first is based on the output of four dispersion models and their own implementation of ash ejection.

Item URL in elib:

https://elib.dlr.de/142087/

Document Type:

Article

Title:

An ensemble of state-of-the-art ash dispersion models: towards probabilistic forecasts to increase the resilience of air traffic against volcanic eruptions

Authors:

Authors	Institution or Email of Authors	Author's ORCID iD	ORCID Put Code
Plu, M.	CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France	UNSPECIFIED	UNSPECIFIED
Scherllin-Pirscher, B.	Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik (ZAMG), Vienna, A-1190, Austria	UNSPECIFIED	UNSPECIFIED
Arnold Arias, D.	Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik (ZAMG), Vienna, A-1190, Austria	UNSPECIFIED	UNSPECIFIED
Baro, R.	Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik (ZAMG), Vienna, A-1190, Austria	UNSPECIFIED	UNSPECIFIED
Bigeard, G.	CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France	UNSPECIFIED	UNSPECIFIED
Bugliaro Goggia, Luca	DLR, IPA	https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4793-0101	UNSPECIFIED
Carvalho, A.	Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Norrkoping, SE-601 76, Sweden	UNSPECIFIED	UNSPECIFIED
El Amraoui, L.	CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France	UNSPECIFIED	UNSPECIFIED
Eschbacher, K.	Paris Lodron University of Salzburg (PLUS), Salzburg, A-5020, Austria	UNSPECIFIED	UNSPECIFIED
Hirtl, M.	Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik (ZAMG), Vienna, A-1190, Austria	UNSPECIFIED	UNSPECIFIED
Maurer, C.	Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik (ZAMG), Vienna, A-1190, Austria	UNSPECIFIED	UNSPECIFIED
Mulder, M.	Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik (ZAMG), Vienna, A-1190, Austria	UNSPECIFIED	UNSPECIFIED
Piontek, Dennis	DLR, IPA	UNSPECIFIED	UNSPECIFIED
Robertson, L.	Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Norrkoping, SE-601 76, Sweden	UNSPECIFIED	UNSPECIFIED
Rokitansky, C.-H.	Paris Lodron University of Salzburg (PLUS), Salzburg, A-5020, Austria	UNSPECIFIED	UNSPECIFIED
Zobl, F.	Paris Lodron University of Salzburg (PLUS), Salzburg, A-5020, Austria	UNSPECIFIED	UNSPECIFIED
Zopp, R.	Flightkeys GmbH, Vienna, A-1060, Austria	UNSPECIFIED	UNSPECIFIED

Date:

5 October 2021

Journal or Publication Title:

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS)

Refereed publication:

Yes

Open Access:

Yes

Gold Open Access:

Yes

In SCOPUS:

Yes

In ISI Web of Science:

Yes

Volume:

DOI:

10.5194/nhess-21-2973-2021

Page Range:

pp. 2973-2992

Publisher:

Copernicus Publications

ISSN:

1561-8633

Status:

Published

Keywords:

volcanic ash, modelling, remote sensing, probabilistic forecast

HGF - Research field:

Aeronautics, Space and Transport

HGF - Program:

Aeronautics

HGF - Program Themes:

Air Transportation and Impact

DLR - Research area:

Aeronautics

DLR - Program:

L AI - Air Transportation and Impact

DLR - Research theme (Project):

L - Climate, Weather and Environment

Location:

Oberpfaffenhofen

Institutes and Institutions:

Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Cloud Physics

Deposited By:

Bugliaro Goggia, Dr.rer.nat. Luca

Deposited On:

14 Oct 2021 07:57

Last Modified:

14 Oct 2021 07:57

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