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An ensemble of state-of-the-art ash dispersion models: towards probabilistic forecasts to increase the resilience of air traffic against volcanic eruptions

Plu, M. and Scherllin-Pirscher, B. and Arnold Arias, D. and Baro, R. and Bigeard, G. and Bugliaro Goggia, Luca and Carvalho, A. and El Amraoui, L. and Eschbacher, K. and Hirtl, M. and Maurer, C. and Mulder, M. and Piontek, Dennis and Robertson, L. and Rokitansky, C.-H. and Zobl, F. and Zopp, R. (2021) An ensemble of state-of-the-art ash dispersion models: towards probabilistic forecasts to increase the resilience of air traffic against volcanic eruptions. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS), 21, pp. 2973-2992. Copernicus Publications. doi: 10.5194/nhess-21-2973-2021. ISSN 1561-8633.

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Official URL: https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/21/2973/2021/

Abstract

High-quality volcanic ash forecasts are crucial to minimize the economic impact of volcanic hazards on air traffic. Decision-making is usually based on numerical dispersion modelling with only one model realization. Given the inherent uncertainty of such an approach, a multi-model multi-source term ensemble has been designed and evaluated for the Eyjafjallajökull eruption in May 2010. Its use for flight planning is discussed. Two multi-model ensembles were built: the first is based on the output of four dispersion models and their own implementation of ash ejection.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/142087/
Document Type:Article
Title:An ensemble of state-of-the-art ash dispersion models: towards probabilistic forecasts to increase the resilience of air traffic against volcanic eruptions
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iD
Plu, M.CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, FranceUNSPECIFIED
Scherllin-Pirscher, B.Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik (ZAMG), Vienna, A-1190, AustriaUNSPECIFIED
Arnold Arias, D.Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik (ZAMG), Vienna, A-1190, AustriaUNSPECIFIED
Baro, R.Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik (ZAMG), Vienna, A-1190, AustriaUNSPECIFIED
Bigeard, G.CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, FranceUNSPECIFIED
Bugliaro Goggia, LucaDLR, IPAhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-4793-0101
Carvalho, A.Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Norrkoping, SE-601 76, SwedenUNSPECIFIED
El Amraoui, L.CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, FranceUNSPECIFIED
Eschbacher, K.Paris Lodron University of Salzburg (PLUS), Salzburg, A-5020, AustriaUNSPECIFIED
Hirtl, M.Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik (ZAMG), Vienna, A-1190, AustriaUNSPECIFIED
Maurer, C.Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik (ZAMG), Vienna, A-1190, AustriaUNSPECIFIED
Mulder, M.Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik (ZAMG), Vienna, A-1190, AustriaUNSPECIFIED
Piontek, DennisDLR, IPAUNSPECIFIED
Robertson, L.Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Norrkoping, SE-601 76, SwedenUNSPECIFIED
Rokitansky, C.-H.Paris Lodron University of Salzburg (PLUS), Salzburg, A-5020, AustriaUNSPECIFIED
Zobl, F.Paris Lodron University of Salzburg (PLUS), Salzburg, A-5020, AustriaUNSPECIFIED
Zopp, R.Flightkeys GmbH, Vienna, A-1060, AustriaUNSPECIFIED
Date:5 October 2021
Journal or Publication Title:Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS)
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:Yes
In SCOPUS:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Volume:21
DOI :10.5194/nhess-21-2973-2021
Page Range:pp. 2973-2992
Publisher:Copernicus Publications
ISSN:1561-8633
Status:Published
Keywords:volcanic ash, modelling, remote sensing, probabilistic forecast
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Aeronautics
HGF - Program Themes:Air Transportation and Impact
DLR - Research area:Aeronautics
DLR - Program:L AI - Air Transportation and Impact
DLR - Research theme (Project):L - Climate, Weather and Environment
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Cloud Physics
Deposited By: Bugliaro Goggia, Dr.rer.nat. Luca
Deposited On:14 Oct 2021 07:57
Last Modified:14 Oct 2021 07:57

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