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Modelling the volcanic ash plume from Eyjafjallajökull eruption (May 2010) over Europe: evaluation of the benefit of source term improvements and of the assimilation of aerosol measurements

Plu, Matthieu and Bigeard, Guillaume and Sicˇ, Bojan and Emili, Emanuele and Bugliaro Goggia, Luca and El Amraoui, Laaziz and Guth, Jonathan and Josse, Beatrice and Mona, Licia and Piontek, Dennis (2021) Modelling the volcanic ash plume from Eyjafjallajökull eruption (May 2010) over Europe: evaluation of the benefit of source term improvements and of the assimilation of aerosol measurements. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS), 2021, pp. 1-24. Copernicus Publications. doi: 10.5194/nhess-2021-97. ISSN 1561-8633.

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Official URL: https://nhess.copernicus.org/preprints/nhess-2021-97/

Abstract

Numerical dispersion models are used operationally worldwide to mitigate the effect of volcanic ash on aviation. In order to improve the representation of the horizontal dispersion of ash plumes and of the 3D concentration of ash, a study was conducted using the MOCAGE model during the EUNADICS-AV project. Source term modelling and assimilation of different data were investigated. A sensitivity study to source term formulation showed that a resolved source term, using the FPLUME plume-rise model in MOCAGE, instead of a parameterised source term, induces a more realistic representation of the horizontal dispersion of the ash plume. The FPLUME simulation provides more concentrated and focused ash concentrations in the horizontal and the vertical dimensions than the other source term. The assimilation of MODIS Aerosol Optical Depth has an impact on the horizontal dispersion the plume, but this effect is rather low and local, compared to source term improvement. More promising results are obtained with the continuous assimilation of ground-based lidar profiles, which improves the vertical distribution of ash and helps to reach realistic values of ash concentrations. The improvement can remain several hours after and several hundred kilometers away downstream to the assimilated profiles.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/142084/
Document Type:Article
Title:Modelling the volcanic ash plume from Eyjafjallajökull eruption (May 2010) over Europe: evaluation of the benefit of source term improvements and of the assimilation of aerosol measurements
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iD
Plu, MatthieuCNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, FranceUNSPECIFIED
Bigeard, GuillaumeCNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, FranceUNSPECIFIED
Sicˇ, BojanCNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, FranceUNSPECIFIED
Emili, EmanueleCECI, Université de Toulouse, Cerfacs, CNRS, Toulouse, FranceUNSPECIFIED
Bugliaro Goggia, LucaDLR, IPAhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-4793-0101
El Amraoui, LaazizCNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, FranceUNSPECIFIED
Guth, JonathanCNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, FranceUNSPECIFIED
Josse, BeatriceCNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, FranceUNSPECIFIED
Mona, LiciaCNR-IMAA, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Istituto di Metodologie per l’Analis Ambientale, Tito (PZ), ItalyUNSPECIFIED
Piontek, DennisDLR, IPAUNSPECIFIED
Date:21 March 2021
Journal or Publication Title:Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS)
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:Yes
In SCOPUS:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Volume:2021
DOI :10.5194/nhess-2021-97
Page Range:pp. 1-24
Publisher:Copernicus Publications
ISSN:1561-8633
Status:Accepted
Keywords:Volcanic ash, modelling, assimilation
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Aeronautics
HGF - Program Themes:Air Transportation and Impact
DLR - Research area:Aeronautics
DLR - Program:L AI - Air Transportation and Impact
DLR - Research theme (Project):L - Integrated Flight Guidance
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Cloud Physics
Deposited By: Bugliaro Goggia, Dr.rer.nat. Luca
Deposited On:17 May 2021 08:26
Last Modified:09 Nov 2021 09:07

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