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Integrated Manoeuvre Detection and Estimation Using Nonlinear Kalman Filters During Orbit Determination of Satellites

Bergmann, Christoph Michael and Zollo, Andrea and Herzog, Johannes and Schildknecht, Thomas (2021) Integrated Manoeuvre Detection and Estimation Using Nonlinear Kalman Filters During Orbit Determination of Satellites. 8th European Conference on Space Debris, 20.-23. Apr. 2021, virtuell.

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Official URL: https://conference.sdo.esoc.esa.int/proceedings/sdc8/paper/55

Abstract

We present our approach to automatically detect and characterize satellite manoeuvres during the orbit de termination (OD) process, based on passive-optical measurements of several geostationary (GEO) satellites from the SMARTnet telescope network [4]. Our technique employs a nonlinear Kalman filter (either an Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) or an Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF)) to detect unexpected deviations from the predicted states of a satellite during the OD process, and subsequently estimates the manoeuvre epoch and respective ∆v-components. An immediate benefit of using nonlinear Kalman filters is that the analysis is performed directly on the angle measurements (right ascension and declination) of an object, which are derived from passive-optical observations with a telescope, as an integral part of the object identification and orbit determination / improvement processes. This mitigates the need to first calculate a new orbit, as is the case for more traditional post-orbit-determination techniques that work with time-series of orbital elements. Once a manoeuvre is detected, its epoch is estimated by means of conjunction analysis. This way we can incorporate the covariance information of the object’s state estimates. More specifically, we propagate two state vectors bracketing the manoeuvre forward and backward in time, respectively. The interval between the two epochs is sampled and the encounter probability is calculated for each step. We then identify the manoeuvre epoch as the time at which the encounter probability takes on its maximum value. Once the manoeuvre epoch is known, the ∆v-components of the manoeuvre can be determined by direct comparison of the two propagated states at that epoch, which also yields information about the type of manoeuvre that has occurred. For the analysis in this study we use passive-optical measurements of two GEO satellites (ASTRA-1KR and ASTRA-1L), for which we had access to operator data including manoeuvre information. Observations were taken with the SMARTnet telescope network station near Sutherland, South Africa. We present our results of using a UKF and an EKF. For each filter, several manoeuvre indicators are employed, namely the squared and normalized residuals, the Log-Likelihood, and the Mahalanobis distance. We demonstrate the ability to determine manoeuvre epochs accurate to within less than a minute and ∆v components to the cm/s-level. Eventually, this automated manoeuvre detection and estimation will be applied to all measurements taken with the SMARTnet telescope network.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/142023/
Document Type:Conference or Workshop Item (Poster)
Title:Integrated Manoeuvre Detection and Estimation Using Nonlinear Kalman Filters During Orbit Determination of Satellites
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iD
Bergmann, Christoph MichaelChristoph.Bergmann (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-2989-7774
Zollo, AndreaAndrea.Zollo (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Herzog, JohannesJohannes.Herzog (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Schildknecht, Thomasthomas.schildknecht (at) aiub.unibe.chUNSPECIFIED
Date:May 2021
Refereed publication:No
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:No
In ISI Web of Science:No
Editors:
EditorsEmailEditor's ORCID iD
Flohrer, TimTim.Flohrer@esa.intUNSPECIFIED
Lemmens, S.ESAUNSPECIFIED
Schmitz, F.ESAUNSPECIFIED
Status:Published
Keywords:Manoeuvre Detection, Kalman Filter
Event Title:8th European Conference on Space Debris
Event Location:virtuell
Event Type:international Conference
Event Dates:20.-23. Apr. 2021
Organizer:ESA
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Space
HGF - Program Themes:Space System Technology
DLR - Research area:Raumfahrt
DLR - Program:R SY - Space System Technology
DLR - Research theme (Project):R - Methods for improved detection, location and tracking of orbital objects
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:Space Operations and Astronaut Training > Space Flight Technology
Deposited By: Bergmann, Christoph Michael
Deposited On:17 Jun 2021 09:03
Last Modified:17 Jun 2021 09:03

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