Cost Benefit Analysis of an Innovative and Modular Autonomous Vehicle: The Case of U-Shift

Kurzfassung

The study presents a Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) of future implementation of “U-Shift” vehicles. “U-Shift” is an autonomous vehicle concept currently developed at the German Centre for Aerospace (DLR). The CBA was prepared in 2020 as part of a feasibility study on behalf of the German Ministry for Economy to assess the possible impacts of a hypothetical large-scale implementation of these vehicles. It compares two future scenarios for roll-out in 2040 in Stuttgart, a mid-sized city in Germany’s automotive centre, with a Base Case. Scenario 1 reflects the preferred approach for implementation pursued by DLR, where autonomous driving of vehicles is enabled by sensors as part of the road infrastructure and the vehicles’ movements are orchestrated by a central traffic management centre. Scenario 2 reflects the current approach for automation, where autonomous driving technology is part of the vehicle itself and their movements are not coordinated by a central agency. The CBA quantifies capital and recurrent costs, road safety, CO2 emissions and air pollution. Costs and benefits are quantified for one year only, 2040, a plausible year for large-scale implementation. As it only considers recurrent costs and benefits of one year, investment costs were apportioned accordingly, taken the expected asset life into account.