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Impact of political measures on passenger and freight transport demand in Germany

Winkler, Christian and Mocanu, Tudor (2020) Impact of political measures on passenger and freight transport demand in Germany. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment (87). Elsevier. doi: 10.1016/j.trd.2020.102476. ISSN 1361-9209.

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Official URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1361920920306635?via%3Dihub


In this paper we present the findings from the “Transport and Environment” (VEU) project related to the evelopment of transport demand in Germany in three scenarios up to the year 2040. The results were obtained using the German national transport model DEMO, a complex model landscape covering all areas of transport (both passenger and freight), trip purposes and modes. The main findings are expressed in terms of number of trips, mode shares and distance travelled by mode. The results show that it is possible to push the transport sector toward a more sustainable state if comprehensive policy measures are established to reduce road transport and make other modes of transport more attractive. In the Regulated Shift scenario, the distance travelled on the road is 20% lower for passenger transport and 4% lower for freight transport compared to the Reference scenario. However, our results also indicate that road transport will still be the backbone of the future transport system in all scenarios, meaning that the mitigation of the environmental effects is only possible in combination with technological developments of road-based transport systems.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/141779/
Document Type:Article
Title:Impact of political measures on passenger and freight transport demand in Germany
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iDORCID Put Code
Mocanu, TudorUNSPECIFIEDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-2883-0121UNSPECIFIED
Date:7 August 2020
Journal or Publication Title:Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:No
Gold Open Access:No
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Keywords:Transport model, Scenario analysis, Passenger transport demand, Freight transport demand,
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Transport
HGF - Program Themes:Transport System
DLR - Research area:Transport
DLR - Program:V VS - Verkehrssystem
DLR - Research theme (Project):V - Transport und Klima (old)
Location: Berlin-Adlershof
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Transport Research > Passenger Transport
Deposited By: Winkler, Dr.-Ing. Christian
Deposited On:14 Apr 2021 09:55
Last Modified:24 Oct 2023 10:47

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