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Integrative Scenario Assessment as a Tool to Support Decisions in Energy Transition

Kopfmüller, Jürgen and Weimer-Jehle, Wolfgang and Naegler, Tobias and Buchgeister, Jens and Bräutigam, Klaus-Rainer and Stelzer, Volker (2021) Integrative Scenario Assessment as a Tool to Support Decisions in Energy Transition. Energies, 14 (6). Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI). doi: 10.3390/en14061580. ISSN 1996-1073.

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Official URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/6/1580


Energy scenarios represent a prominent tool to support energy system transitions towards sustainability. In order to better fulfil this role, two elements are widely missing in previous work on designing, analyzing, and using scenarios: First, a more systematic integration of social and socio-technical characteristics of energy systems in scenario design, and, second, a method to apply an accordingly enhanced set of indicators in scenario assessment. In this article, an integrative scenario assessment methodology is introduced that combines these two requirements. It consists of: (i) A model-based scenario analysis using techno-economic and ecological indicators; (ii) a non-model-based analysis using socio-technical indicators; (iii) an assessment of scenario performances with respect to pre-determined indicator targets; (iv) a normalization method to make the two types of results (model-based and non-model-based) comparable; (v) an approach to classify results to facilitate structured interpretation. The combination of these elements represents the added-value of this methodology. It is illustrated for selected indicators, and exemplary results are presented. Methodological challenges and remaining questions, e.g., regarding the analysis of non-model-based indicators, resource requirements, or the robustness of the methodology are pointed out and discussed. We consider this integrative methodology being a substantial improvement of previous scenario assessment methodologies.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/141376/
Document Type:Article
Title:Integrative Scenario Assessment as a Tool to Support Decisions in Energy Transition
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iD
Weimer-Jehle, WolfgangZIRIUS Uni StuttgartUNSPECIFIED
Naegler, TobiasTobias.Naegler (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-2390-1672
Bräutigam, Klaus-RainerKIT ITASUNSPECIFIED
Date:March 2021
Journal or Publication Title:Energies
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
DOI :10.3390/en14061580
Publisher:Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI)
Keywords:sustainability assessment; socio-technical scenarios; energy system model; decision support; integrative assessment; cross-impact balance; semi-quantitative analysis; normalization method
HGF - Research field:Energy
HGF - Program:Energy System Design
HGF - Program Themes:Energy System Transformation
DLR - Research area:Energy
DLR - Program:E SY - Energy System Technology and Analysis
DLR - Research theme (Project):E - Systems Analysis and Technology Assessment
Location: Stuttgart
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Networked Energy Systems > Energy Systems Analysis, ST
Deposited By: Naegler, Tobias
Deposited On:30 Mar 2021 15:57
Last Modified:30 Mar 2021 15:57

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