Distributional effects of carbon taxation in passenger transport with lump-sum offset: how low income households, retirees and families would benefit in Germany

Abstract

Background: The introduction of a carbon tax on passenger transport is currently being discussed in Germany. Various stakeholders favour a consumption-based, revenue-neutral carbon tax with a uniform lump-sum offset for private households and a tax rate of 40 € per ton of CO2. Objective: In this study, we examine the distributional effects of carbon taxation for the German passenger transport sector under the assumption of the proposed tax model. We discuss as to what extent which socioeconomic groups would be burdened and who might even benefit from carbon taxation. To answer these questions we use a uniquely modelled data set that encompasses all forms of passenger transport (i.e. in Germany and abroad) of the German resident population over 1 year. The national household travel survey Mobility in Germany 2017 is the basis of the microscopic data set. We derive annual CO2 emissions and carbon tax burdens for various population groups using the data on passenger transport, as well as specific emission factors. Results: Results show that low income households, retirees, single parents and family households with two or more children would benefit from the proposed carbon taxation scheme due to below-average emissions per person; in contrast, working age households without children and car owners with heavy car use would be burdened. Our results are of particular relevance to transport researchers, transport politicians and decision makers as a basis for designing, developing and introducing a carbon taxation scheme