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The Impact of Solar Activity on Forecasting the Upper Atmosphere via Assimilation of Electron Density Data

Kodikara, Timothy and Zhang, Kefei and Pedatella, Nick and Borries, Claudia (2021) The Impact of Solar Activity on Forecasting the Upper Atmosphere via Assimilation of Electron Density Data. 2021 CEDAR Workshop, 20-25 Jun 2021, Virtual.

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This poster is an extract from Kodikara et at., (2021; doi: 10.1029/2020SW002660). The study presents a comprehensive comparison of the impact of solar activity on forecasting the upper atmosphere through assimilation of radio occultation (RO)-derived electron density (Ne) into a physics-based model (TIE-GCM) using an ensemble Kalman filter (KF). Globally abundant RO-derived Ne offers one of the most promising means to test the effect of assimilation on the model forecasted state on a global scale. This study emphasizes the importance of understanding how the assimilation results vary with solar activity, which is one of the main drivers of thermosphere-ionosphere dynamics. This study validates the forecast states with independent RO-derived GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment mission) Ne data. The principal result of the study is that the agreement between forecast Ne and data is better during solar minimum than solar maximum. The results also show that the agreement between data and forecast is mostly better than that of the standalone TIE-GCM driven with observed geophysical indices. The results emphasize that TIE-GCM significantly underestimate Ne in altitudes below 250 km and the assimilation of Ne is not as effective in these lower altitudes as it is in higher altitudes. The results demonstrate that assimilation of Ne significantly impacts the neutral mass density estimates via the KF state vector—the impact is larger during solar maximum than solar minimum relative to a control case that does not assimilate Ne. The results are useful to explain the inherent model bias, to understand the limitations of the data, and to demonstrate the capability of the assimilation technique.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/140617/
Document Type:Conference or Workshop Item (Poster)
Title:The Impact of Solar Activity on Forecasting the Upper Atmosphere via Assimilation of Electron Density Data
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iDORCID Put Code
Kodikara, TimothyUNSPECIFIEDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-4099-9966UNSPECIFIED
Zhang, KefeiRMIT, Australiahttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-9376-1148UNSPECIFIED
Pedatella, NickUCAR, CO, USAhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-8878-5126UNSPECIFIED
Borries, ClaudiaUNSPECIFIEDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-9948-3353UNSPECIFIED
Date:17 June 2021
Refereed publication:No
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:No
In ISI Web of Science:No
Keywords:data assimilation, ionosphere forecasts, ensemble Kalman filter, TIE-GCM, neutral mass density forecasts, COSMIC
Event Title:2021 CEDAR Workshop
Event Location:Virtual
Event Type:international Conference
Event Dates:20-25 Jun 2021
Organizer:UCAR [https://cpaess.ucar.edu/2021-cedar-workshop]
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Space
HGF - Program Themes:Communication, Navigation, Quantum Technology
DLR - Research area:Raumfahrt
DLR - Program:R KNQ - Communication, Navigation, Quantum Technology
DLR - Research theme (Project):R - Ionosphere
Location: Neustrelitz
Institutes and Institutions:Institute for Solar-Terrestrial Physics > Solar-Terrestrial Coupling Processes
Deposited By: Kodikara, Dr Timothy
Deposited On:24 Jun 2021 10:29
Last Modified:24 Jun 2021 10:29

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