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The Impact of Solar Activity on Forecasting the Upper Atmosphere via Assimilation of Electron Density Data

Kodikara, Timothy und Zhang, Kefei und Pedatella, Nick und Borries, Claudia (2021) The Impact of Solar Activity on Forecasting the Upper Atmosphere via Assimilation of Electron Density Data. 2021 CEDAR Workshop, 20-25 Jun 2021, Virtual.

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Kurzfassung

This poster is an extract from Kodikara et at., (2021; doi: 10.1029/2020SW002660). The study presents a comprehensive comparison of the impact of solar activity on forecasting the upper atmosphere through assimilation of radio occultation (RO)-derived electron density (Ne) into a physics-based model (TIE-GCM) using an ensemble Kalman filter (KF). Globally abundant RO-derived Ne offers one of the most promising means to test the effect of assimilation on the model forecasted state on a global scale. This study emphasizes the importance of understanding how the assimilation results vary with solar activity, which is one of the main drivers of thermosphere-ionosphere dynamics. This study validates the forecast states with independent RO-derived GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment mission) Ne data. The principal result of the study is that the agreement between forecast Ne and data is better during solar minimum than solar maximum. The results also show that the agreement between data and forecast is mostly better than that of the standalone TIE-GCM driven with observed geophysical indices. The results emphasize that TIE-GCM significantly underestimate Ne in altitudes below 250 km and the assimilation of Ne is not as effective in these lower altitudes as it is in higher altitudes. The results demonstrate that assimilation of Ne significantly impacts the neutral mass density estimates via the KF state vector—the impact is larger during solar maximum than solar minimum relative to a control case that does not assimilate Ne. The results are useful to explain the inherent model bias, to understand the limitations of the data, and to demonstrate the capability of the assimilation technique.

elib-URL des Eintrags:https://elib.dlr.de/140617/
Dokumentart:Konferenzbeitrag (Poster)
Titel:The Impact of Solar Activity on Forecasting the Upper Atmosphere via Assimilation of Electron Density Data
Autoren:
AutorenInstitution oder E-Mail-AdresseAutoren-ORCID-iDORCID Put Code
Kodikara, TimothyTimothy.Kodikara (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-4099-9966NICHT SPEZIFIZIERT
Zhang, KefeiRMIT, Australiahttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-9376-1148NICHT SPEZIFIZIERT
Pedatella, NickUCAR, CO, USAhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-8878-5126NICHT SPEZIFIZIERT
Borries, Claudiaclaudia.borries (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-9948-3353NICHT SPEZIFIZIERT
Datum:17 Juni 2021
Referierte Publikation:Nein
Open Access:Ja
Gold Open Access:Nein
In SCOPUS:Nein
In ISI Web of Science:Nein
Status:veröffentlicht
Stichwörter:data assimilation, ionosphere forecasts, ensemble Kalman filter, TIE-GCM, neutral mass density forecasts, COSMIC
Veranstaltungstitel:2021 CEDAR Workshop
Veranstaltungsort:Virtual
Veranstaltungsart:internationale Konferenz
Veranstaltungsdatum:20-25 Jun 2021
Veranstalter :UCAR [https://cpaess.ucar.edu/2021-cedar-workshop]
HGF - Forschungsbereich:Luftfahrt, Raumfahrt und Verkehr
HGF - Programm:Raumfahrt
HGF - Programmthema:Kommunikation, Navigation, Quantentechnologien
DLR - Schwerpunkt:Raumfahrt
DLR - Forschungsgebiet:R KNQ - Kommunikation, Navigation, Quantentechnologie
DLR - Teilgebiet (Projekt, Vorhaben):R - Ionosphäre
Standort: Neustrelitz
Institute & Einrichtungen:Institut für Solar-Terrestrische Physik > Solar-Terrestrische Kopplungsprozesse
Hinterlegt von: Kodikara, Dr Timothy
Hinterlegt am:24 Jun 2021 10:29
Letzte Änderung:24 Jun 2021 10:29

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