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Evaluation of an all sky imager based nowcasting system for distinct conditions and five sites

Nouri, Bijan and Wilbert, Stefan and Blum, Niklas and Kuhn, Pascal Moritz and Schmidt, Thomas and Yasser, Zeyad and Schmidt, Thomas and Zarzalejo, L.F. and Lopes, Francisco and Silva, Hugo G. and Schroedter-Homscheidt, Marion and Kazantzidis, A. and Raeder, Christian and Blanc, Phil and Pitz-Paal, Robert (2020) Evaluation of an all sky imager based nowcasting system for distinct conditions and five sites. In: 2019 International Conference on Concentrating Solar Power and Chemical Energy Systems, SolarPACES 2019, 2303 (180006). AIP Publishing. SolarPACES Conference 2019, 2019-10-01 - 2019-10-04, Daego, South Corea. doi: 10.1063/5.0028670. ISBN 978-073544037-1. ISSN 0094-243X.

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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0028670


All sky imager (ASI) based nowcasting system can provide spatially and temporally highly resolved solar irradiance information for the next minutes ahead. Nowcasts, which capture the intra-hour variability of the incoming downward shortwave solar irradiance, have the potential to optimize the operation of solar power plants as well as electrical grids. Such automatized optimizations require a deep understanding of the accuracy in the nowcasting system at any given moment. State of the art validation procedures of ASI based nowcasting systems use scalar error metrics without regards to the actual weather conditions. Yet, the performance of nowcasting systems varies strongly with the prevailing weather conditions. Deviations increase for more complex and variable conditions, for which it is more challenging to detect and model the clouds in the sky. Thus, depending on the used data set such validation results may not be meaningful to describe the expected accuracy in realistic and individual optimization situations. A novel validation procedure is presented in this work, which discretizes the validation data set in distinct temporal DNI variability classes. Individual error metrics are determined as function of the lead time and DNI variability class. This approach is applied for a two ASI based nowcasting system as operated on five distinct sites distributed in Spain, Portugal and Germany, over a combined period of more than 4.5 years. The obtained validation results emphasize that the novel classification method enables a comparison in nowcast performance between the sites despite of distinct local meteorological conditions. The presented method allows the estimation of the overall accuracy of nowcasting systems at a new site if DNI data in 1 min resolution are available.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/139992/
Document Type:Conference or Workshop Item (Speech)
Title:Evaluation of an all sky imager based nowcasting system for distinct conditions and five sites
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iDORCID Put Code
Nouri, BijanUNSPECIFIEDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-9891-1974UNSPECIFIED
Wilbert, StefanUNSPECIFIEDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-3573-3004UNSPECIFIED
Blum, NiklasUNSPECIFIEDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-1541-7234UNSPECIFIED
Kuhn, Pascal MoritzUNSPECIFIEDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-9978-5706UNSPECIFIED
Lopes, FranciscoUniversity of EvoraUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Silva, Hugo G.University of EvoraUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Schroedter-Homscheidt, MarionUNSPECIFIEDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-1854-903XUNSPECIFIED
Kazantzidis, A.Lab. of Atm. Physics, Aristotle Univ., Thessaloniki, GRUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Raeder, ChristianUNSPECIFIEDhttps://orcid.org/0009-0009-4903-6200UNSPECIFIED
Pitz-Paal, RobertUNSPECIFIEDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-3542-3391UNSPECIFIED
Date:December 2020
Journal or Publication Title:2019 International Conference on Concentrating Solar Power and Chemical Energy Systems, SolarPACES 2019
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:No
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Publisher:AIP Publishing
Series Name:AIP Conference Proceedings
Keywords:All sky imager, solar irradiance, nowcasting system, DNI,
Event Title:SolarPACES Conference 2019
Event Location:Daego, South Corea
Event Type:international Conference
Event Start Date:1 October 2019
Event End Date:4 October 2019
HGF - Research field:Energy
HGF - Program:Renewable Energies
HGF - Program Themes:Concentrating Solar Thermal Technology
DLR - Research area:Energy
DLR - Program:E SW - Solar and Wind Energy
DLR - Research theme (Project):E - Impact of Desert Environment (old)
Location: Köln-Porz
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Solar Research > Qualification
Institute of Networked Energy Systems > Energy Systems Analysis
Deposited By: Kruschinski, Anja
Deposited On:04 Jan 2021 12:01
Last Modified:24 Apr 2024 20:40

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