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Land transport development in three integrated scenarios for Germany: Technology options, energy demand and emissions

Ehrenberger, Simone I. and Seum, Stefan and Pregger, Thomas and Simon, Sonja and Knitschky, Gunnar and Kugler, Ulrike (2021) Land transport development in three integrated scenarios for Germany: Technology options, energy demand and emissions. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 90, p. 102669. Elsevier. doi: 10.1016/j.trd.2020.102669. ISSN 1361-9209.

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Official URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1361920920308543

Abstract

Today, transportation contributes significantly to greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution. However, new technologies are emerging and existing technologies are being further improved. This article presents the results of a comprehensive study on the development of drive-trains, resulting electricity and fuel consumption as well as emissions of CO2 and selected air pollutants in land transport in Germany. This includes a quantitative assessment of technological potentials and of resulting energy consumption and emissions. The scenario building followed an explorative approach. Only the scenario depicting a consistent transition towards electrified mobility and regulated emissions from the energy system leads to a significant reduction in transport related CO2 emissions. Yet, the analysis shows that it is unlikely that the German emission reduction target in 2030 for the transport sector will be met. Nevertheless, the integrated scenario analysis demonstrates that only a joint de-carbonization of both transport and electricity systems lead to a significant reduction of emissions.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/139938/
Document Type:Article
Title:Land transport development in three integrated scenarios for Germany: Technology options, energy demand and emissions
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iD
Ehrenberger, Simone I.Simone.Ehrenberger (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-2148-5129
Seum, StefanStefan.Seum (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-9396-0128
Pregger, ThomasThomas.Pregger (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-6728-7451
Simon, SonjaSonja.Simon (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-2775-5457
Knitschky, GunnarGunnar.Knitschky (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Kugler, UlrikeUlrike.Kugler (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-4734-4065
Date:January 2021
Journal or Publication Title:Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Volume:90
DOI :10.1016/j.trd.2020.102669
Page Range:p. 102669
Publisher:Elsevier
ISSN:1361-9209
Status:Published
Keywords:Transport emission; Electric vehicle; Emission factor; Transport scenario; Energy system; Energy scenario
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Transport
HGF - Program Themes:Transport System
DLR - Research area:Transport
DLR - Program:V VS - Verkehrssystem
DLR - Research theme (Project):V - Energie und Verkehr, V - Transport und Klima
Location: Stuttgart
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Vehicle Concepts > Fahrzeugsysteme und Technologiebewertung
Institute of Transport Research > Passenger Transport
Institute of Transport Research > Commercial Transport
Institute of Engineering Thermodynamics > Energy Systems Analysis
Deposited By: Ehrenberger, Simone
Deposited On:11 Jan 2021 16:48
Last Modified:11 Jan 2021 16:48

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