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Modelling road transport emissions in Germany – Current day situation and scenarios for 2040

Matthias, Volker and Bieser, Johannes and Mocanu, Tudor and Pregger, Thomas and Quante, Markus and Ramacher, Martin and Seum, Stefan and Winkler, Christian (2020) Modelling road transport emissions in Germany – Current day situation and scenarios for 2040. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 87 (102536). Elsevier. doi: 10.1016/j.trd.2020.102536. ISSN 1361-9209.

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Official URL: https://reader.elsevier.com/reader/sd/pii/S1361920920307239?token=0C3F260AC08769C0EE9AA9132C68F59B6182738C12D9E177296293E274B11D7D7DC3170005220AD7D3D9AF51D8EDB2D8

Abstract

In the German project Traffic Development and the Environment an advanced model chain was built up that includes traffic models, fleet composition developments, new driving technologies, and emission factors in order to produce spatio-temporal emission distributions for use in at-mospheric chemistry transport models. This novel model chain was first used to calculate current day traffic emissions in Germany and then to develop consistent future scenarios for 2040. In all scenarios, NOx emissions from traffic decrease by approximately 80% while PM emissions show a lower reduction. The scenarios Free Play, which is based on a free market economics logic, and Regulated Shift, which considers stricter environmental regulations, represent large differences in traffic emissions. NOx emissions will be 32% lower and PM emissions 13% lower in the Regulated Shift scenario compared to the Free Play. The data can be combined with other anthropogenic emissions for investigating air quality with chemistry transport models.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/139927/
Document Type:Article
Title:Modelling road transport emissions in Germany – Current day situation and scenarios for 2040
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iD
Matthias, VolkerHelmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, GeesthachtUNSPECIFIED
Bieser, JohannesHelmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, GeesthachtUNSPECIFIED
Mocanu, TudorTudor.Mocanu (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Pregger, ThomasThomas.Pregger (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-6728-7451
Quante, MarkusHelmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, GeesthachtUNSPECIFIED
Ramacher, MartinHelmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, GeesthachtUNSPECIFIED
Seum, StefanStefan.Seum (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-9396-0128
Winkler, ChristianChristian.Winkler (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Date:2020
Journal or Publication Title:Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Volume:87
DOI :10.1016/j.trd.2020.102536
Publisher:Elsevier
ISSN:1361-9209
Status:Published
Keywords:Future scenarios, emission modeling, road transport, traffic modeling
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Transport
HGF - Program Themes:Transport System
DLR - Research area:Transport
DLR - Program:V VS - Verkehrssystem
DLR - Research theme (Project):V - Energie und Verkehr
Location: Berlin-Adlershof
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Transport Research
Institute of Engineering Thermodynamics > Energy Systems Analysis
Deposited By: Seum, Stefan
Deposited On:22 Dec 2020 12:41
Last Modified:22 Dec 2020 12:41

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