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Minute-scale detection and probabilistic prediction of offshore wind turbine power ramps using dual-Doppler radar

Valldecabres, L. and von Bremen, Lueder and Kühn, M. (2020) Minute-scale detection and probabilistic prediction of offshore wind turbine power ramps using dual-Doppler radar. Wind Energy, 23 (12), pp. 2202-2224. Wiley. doi: 10.1002/we.2553. ISSN 1095-4244.

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Official URL: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/we.2553

Abstract

Predicting the occurrence of strong and sudden variations in wind power, so‐called ramp events, has become one of the main challenges for the operation of power systems with large shares of wind power. In this paper, we investigate 14 ramp events of different magnitudes and minute‐scale durations observed by a dual‐Doppler radar system at the Westermost Rough offshore wind farm. The identified ramps are characterised using radar observations, turbine data and data from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. A remote sensing‐based forecasting methodology that propagates wind speeds upstream of wake‐free turbines is extended here to the whole farm, by including corrections for wake effects. The methodology aims to probabilistically forecast the wind turbines' power in the form of density forecasts. The ability to predict ramp events of different magnitudes is evaluated and compared with probabilistic statistical and physical benchmarks. During the observed ramp events, the remote sensing‐based forecasting model strongly outperforms the benchmarks. We show here that remote sensing observations such as radar data can significantly enhance very short‐term forecasts of wind power.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/139818/
Document Type:Article
Title:Minute-scale detection and probabilistic prediction of offshore wind turbine power ramps using dual-Doppler radar
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iDORCID Put Code
Valldecabres, L.Institute of Physics, ForWind, University OldenburgUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
von Bremen, LuederUNSPECIFIEDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-7072-0738UNSPECIFIED
Kühn, M.Institute of Physics, ForWind, University OldenburgUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Date:14 September 2020
Journal or Publication Title:Wind Energy
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Volume:23
DOI:10.1002/we.2553
Page Range:pp. 2202-2224
Publisher:Wiley
ISSN:1095-4244
Status:Published
Keywords:density forecast, remote sensing, transient ramp, very short-term forecast, weather front
HGF - Research field:Energy
HGF - Program:Technology, Innovation and Society
HGF - Program Themes:Renewable Energy and Material Resources for Sustainable Futures - Integrating at Different Scales
DLR - Research area:Energy
DLR - Program:E SY - Energy Systems Analysis
DLR - Research theme (Project):E - Systems Analysis and Technology Assessment (old)
Location: Oldenburg
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Networked Energy Systems > Energy Systems Analysis
Deposited By: von Bremen, Lüder
Deposited On:18 Dec 2020 13:49
Last Modified:27 Jun 2023 15:03

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