An analysis of the prospects of ultra-long-haul airline operations using passenger demand data

Abstract

Intercontinental air travel has been steadily growing in pre-COVID-19 times. The rise of the BoGu (Bosporus-Gulf) hubs in Abu Dhabi, Doha, Dubai and Istanbul and located centrally between Europe, Africa and Asia/Oceania, is a prime example for this trend. Hence, the BoGu network carriers have reached considerable market shares on several origin-destination markets. As a consequence, traditional network airlines affected by the competition from BoGu carriers are looking for ways to re-capture market shares. One example for this is the inauguration of new ultra-long-haul non-stop flights as a new business model. At least for city pairs with sufficient origin-destination demand, such flights render intermediate stops or transfers at hubs obsolete, allowing the carriers to offer their passengers significant travel time savings. This trend is supported by aircraft manufacturers, which have developed new, fuel-efficient aircraft, capable of carrying a commercially viable payload over distances impossible in previous decades. With these aircraft, direct services on city pairs can be offered, which previously required a transfer or fuel stop. We analyze the market characteristics and effects of ultra-long-haul operations offered recently and estimate the prospects of further ultra-long-haul operations in the future. Our analysis is based on origin-destination passenger demand levels on the level city pairs.