The development of transfer passenger volumes and shares at airport and world region levels

Abstract

Many air travelers have to change planes. Knowledge on transfer passengers and shares at airport to worldwide levels can be useful industry, policy and research questions. However, as such data is usually not disclosed publically, the structure of transfer volumes and shares has not yet been studied in greater detail. This leaves a research (data) gap which this paper intends to close to some extent. More precisely, we aim at assessing: How total transfer passenger volumes have developed, at worldwide and world region levels; how these relate to the volumes of directly flying passengers; the leading transfer airports in absolute and relative sense; and how the latter have changed over time. We present a methodology to calculate transfer passengers from segment passenger split data provided in the “leg flow” statistics module of a global air transport statistical database which consolidates passenger booking data and estimates from various sources. Departing passenger numbers at the airport level are split into local, beyond, behind and bridge passengers, of which only the latter two count as transfer passengers. The transfer share of an airport is then calculated as the sum of this airport’s behind and bridge passengers divided by all departing passengers. Applying this methodology, we estimate transfer passenger numbers and shares for all airports and world regions for the period 2002-2018. The results indicate a declining importance of transfer passengers at the global level; rising transfer volumes and shares in the Middle East region and China, driven by the growth of emerging ChiBoGu (China, Bosporus, Gulf) carriers; decreasing transfer passenger numbers in the U.S., probably due to airline consolidation and hub downsizing activities in the 00s. Finally, key hubs in cities with less touristic appeal like, e.g. Atlanta or Doha, seem to achieve higher transfer shares than gateway hubs in high-profile destinations like Dubai or New York.