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Cb-Fusion – forecasting thunderstorm cells up to 6 hours

Li, Jingmin and Forster, Caroline and Wagner, Johannes and Gerz, Thomas (2020) Cb-Fusion – forecasting thunderstorm cells up to 6 hours. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, pp. 1-16. Borntraeger Science Publishers. doi: 10.1127/metz/2020/1047. ISSN 0941-2948.

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Official URL: https://www.schweizerbart.de/papers/metz/detail/30/96917/Cb_Fusion_forecasting_thunderstorm_cells_up_to_6_hours

Abstract

As a severe weather phenomenon, thunderstorms can cause casualties and economic loss to the human society. A reliable forecast of these weather events would help to avoid or at least mitigate this damage. To date, the forecasting of thunderstorms however is still a challenge, especially for lead times of one hour and beyond. In this study we present a methodology to forecast deep-convection for several hours lead time: Cb-Fusion estimates the likelihood of thunderstorm occurrence for up to 6 hours in advance over a part of Central Europe, using a data fusion technique that blends data of multiple sources from observations, nowcasts, and numerical weather predictions with a high update rate. The Cb-Fusion is set up to operate in near real time. The skill of Cb-Fusion is evaluated based on 1743 hours of thunderstorm observations collected during the months April to October, 2019. Three categories of thunderstorm size have been distinguished: ‘large’ for a coverage area larger than 5000 km2, ‘medium’ for a coverage area between 5000 km2 and 500 km2, and ‘small’ for a coverage area smaller than 500 km2. Compared to thunderstorm forecasts from numerical models alone, the combination of data from various sources by Cb-Fusion results in a significantly better forecast skill. The study reveals that the forecast is reliable for up to 3 hours lead time for ‘medium’ and ‘large’ scale thunderstorms (median POD of 0.6 – 0.9) but little skill is found for ‘small’ scale thunderstorms and lead times between 3 and 6 hours (median POD of 0.05). It is argued that Cb-Fusion provides meaningful improvements in forecasting thunderstorms for various users.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/138031/
Document Type:Article
Title:Cb-Fusion – forecasting thunderstorm cells up to 6 hours
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iD
Li, JingminDLR, IPAhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-7328-5102
Forster, CarolineDLR, IPAUNSPECIFIED
Wagner, JohannesDLR, IPAUNSPECIFIED
Gerz, ThomasDLR, IPAUNSPECIFIED
Date:2020
Journal or Publication Title:Meteorologische Zeitschrift
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:Yes
In SCOPUS:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
DOI :10.1127/metz/2020/1047
Page Range:pp. 1-16
Editors:
EditorsEmailEditor's ORCID iD
Emeis, StefanForschungszentrum Karlsruhe, Garmisch-PartenkirchenUNSPECIFIED
Publisher:Borntraeger Science Publishers
ISSN:0941-2948
Status:Published
Keywords:Thunderstorm, real-time, nowcasting, forecasting, data fusion
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Aeronautics
HGF - Program Themes:other
DLR - Research area:Aeronautics
DLR - Program:L - no assignment
DLR - Research theme (Project):L - Managementaufgaben Luftfahrt
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Transport Meteorology
Deposited By: Li, Jingmin
Deposited On:24 Nov 2020 11:31
Last Modified:17 May 2021 09:52

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