Li, Jingmin und Forster, Caroline und Wagner, Johannes und Gerz, Thomas (2020) Cb-Fusion - forecasting thunderstorm cells up to 6 hours. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, Seiten 1-16. Borntraeger Science Publishers. doi: 10.1127/metz/2020/1047. ISSN 0941-2948.
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Offizielle URL: https://www.schweizerbart.de/papers/metz/detail/30/96917/Cb_Fusion_forecasting_thunderstorm_cells_up_to_6_hours
Kurzfassung
As a severe weather phenomenon, thunderstorms can cause casualties and economic loss to the human society. A reliable forecast of these weather events would help to avoid or at least mitigate this damage. To date, the forecasting of thunderstorms however is still a challenge, especially for lead times of one hour and beyond. In this study we present a methodology to forecast deep-convection for several hours lead time: Cb-Fusion estimates the likelihood of thunderstorm occurrence for up to 6 hours in advance over a part of Central Europe, using a data fusion technique that blends data of multiple sources from observations, nowcasts, and numerical weather predictions with a high update rate. The Cb-Fusion is set up to operate in near real time. The skill of Cb-Fusion is evaluated based on 1743 hours of thunderstorm observations collected during the months April to October, 2019. Three categories of thunderstorm size have been distinguished: ‘large’ for a coverage area larger than 5000 km2, ‘medium’ for a coverage area between 5000 km2 and 500 km2, and ‘small’ for a coverage area smaller than 500 km2. Compared to thunderstorm forecasts from numerical models alone, the combination of data from various sources by Cb-Fusion results in a significantly better forecast skill. The study reveals that the forecast is reliable for up to 3 hours lead time for ‘medium’ and ‘large’ scale thunderstorms (median POD of 0.6 – 0.9) but little skill is found for ‘small’ scale thunderstorms and lead times between 3 and 6 hours (median POD of 0.05). It is argued that Cb-Fusion provides meaningful improvements in forecasting thunderstorms for various users.
elib-URL des Eintrags: | https://elib.dlr.de/138031/ | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Dokumentart: | Zeitschriftenbeitrag | ||||||||||||||||||||
Titel: | Cb-Fusion - forecasting thunderstorm cells up to 6 hours | ||||||||||||||||||||
Autoren: |
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Datum: | 2020 | ||||||||||||||||||||
Erschienen in: | Meteorologische Zeitschrift | ||||||||||||||||||||
Referierte Publikation: | Ja | ||||||||||||||||||||
Open Access: | Ja | ||||||||||||||||||||
Gold Open Access: | Ja | ||||||||||||||||||||
In SCOPUS: | Ja | ||||||||||||||||||||
In ISI Web of Science: | Ja | ||||||||||||||||||||
DOI: | 10.1127/metz/2020/1047 | ||||||||||||||||||||
Seitenbereich: | Seiten 1-16 | ||||||||||||||||||||
Herausgeber: |
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Verlag: | Borntraeger Science Publishers | ||||||||||||||||||||
ISSN: | 0941-2948 | ||||||||||||||||||||
Status: | veröffentlicht | ||||||||||||||||||||
Stichwörter: | Thunderstorm, real-time, nowcasting, forecasting, data fusion | ||||||||||||||||||||
HGF - Forschungsbereich: | Luftfahrt, Raumfahrt und Verkehr | ||||||||||||||||||||
HGF - Programm: | Luftfahrt | ||||||||||||||||||||
HGF - Programmthema: | keine Zuordnung | ||||||||||||||||||||
DLR - Schwerpunkt: | Luftfahrt | ||||||||||||||||||||
DLR - Forschungsgebiet: | L - keine Zuordnung | ||||||||||||||||||||
DLR - Teilgebiet (Projekt, Vorhaben): | L - Managementaufgaben Luftfahrt | ||||||||||||||||||||
Standort: | Oberpfaffenhofen | ||||||||||||||||||||
Institute & Einrichtungen: | Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre > Verkehrsmeteorologie | ||||||||||||||||||||
Hinterlegt von: | Li, Jingmin | ||||||||||||||||||||
Hinterlegt am: | 24 Nov 2020 11:31 | ||||||||||||||||||||
Letzte Änderung: | 24 Okt 2023 14:16 |
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