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Load predictions: vulnerability of micro-grids based on renewable energies due to increasing population and individual demand

Kühnel, M. and Ravanbach, B. and Hanke, B. and Weigel, O. and W., I. and McMaster, A. and Maebe, S. and von Maydell, K. (2020) Load predictions: vulnerability of micro-grids based on renewable energies due to increasing population and individual demand. IET Renewable Power Generation, 14 (8), pp. 1312-1320. Institution of Engineering and Technology (IET). doi: 10.1049/iet-rpg.2019.0705. ISSN 1752-1416.

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Official URL: https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/9110483

Abstract

Small-scale systems are vulnerable to changes. The development of solution strategies for changing conditions should, therefore, be considered from the outset in planning. For planners and installers of mini-grids for rural villages without grid connection, first of all, the question of the expected electricity demand arises. So far, this is determined primarily by interviewing the population. However, studies have shown that there are still major differences between the power demand estimated and the real load after electrification. Reinforcing here is the inadequate assessment of load development through immigration and increased prosperity. On the basis of a currently developing mini-grid in the Eastern Cape of South Africa, we could show that a load increase of ~60% within 10 years is to be expected. The following possibilities were outlined as possible ways of counteracting the increase in load: (i) communicating with the population, i.e. on energy efficiency to raise awareness and understanding, (ii) early planning of capacity building and identification of key performance parameters to trigger the expansion based on local socio-cultural conditions and grid supporting qualities. An adequate database for the initial electrification and power development should also be established and available on open-source basis for researchers, developers, communities, and installers.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/137420/
Document Type:Article
Title:Load predictions: vulnerability of micro-grids based on renewable energies due to increasing population and individual demand
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iD
Kühnel, M.meike.kuehnel (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-8144-7431
Ravanbach, B.babak.ravanbach (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Hanke, B.benedikt.hanke (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-7927-0123
Weigel, O.olga.weigel (at) giz.deUNSPECIFIED
W., I.ingo.stuermer (at) mu.niedersachsen.deUNSPECIFIED
McMaster, A.alister.mcMaster (at) dedea.gov.zaUNSPECIFIED
Maebe, S.sander.maebe (at) giz.deUNSPECIFIED
von Maydell, K.karsten.maydell (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-0966-5810
Date:8 May 2020
Journal or Publication Title:IET Renewable Power Generation
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:No
Gold Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Volume:14
DOI :10.1049/iet-rpg.2019.0705
Page Range:pp. 1312-1320
Editors:
EditorsEmailEditor's ORCID iD
UNSPECIFIEDiet_rpg@theiet.orgUNSPECIFIED
Publisher:Institution of Engineering and Technology (IET)
Series Name:IET Renewable Poer Generation
ISSN:1752-1416
Status:Published
Keywords:Mini-Grid, hybrid power Generation, load prediction and development, rural electrification
HGF - Research field:Energy
HGF - Program:Technology, Innovation and Society
HGF - Program Themes:Renewable Energy and Material Resources for Sustainable Futures - Integrating at Different Scales
DLR - Research area:Energy
DLR - Program:E SY - Energy Systems Analysis
DLR - Research theme (Project):E - Energy Systems Technology (old)
Location: Oldenburg
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Networked Energy Systems > Energy System Technology
Deposited By: Kühnel, Meike
Deposited On:13 Nov 2020 08:55
Last Modified:19 Nov 2021 20:39

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