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Forecasting Spatio-Temporal Dynamics on the Land Surface Using Earth Observation Data—A Review

Köhler, Jonas and Kuenzer, Claudia (2020) Forecasting Spatio-Temporal Dynamics on the Land Surface Using Earth Observation Data—A Review. Remote Sensing, 12 (21), p. 3513. Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI). doi: 10.3390/rs12213513. ISSN 2072-4292.

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Official URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/12/21/3513

Abstract

Reliable forecasts on the impacts of global change on the land surface are vital to inform the actions of policy and decision makers to mitigate consequences and secure livelihoods. Geospatial Earth Observation (EO) data from remote sensing satellites has been collected continuously for 40 years and has the potential to facilitate the spatio-temporal forecasting of land surface dynamics. In this review we compiled 143 papers on EO-based forecasting of all aspects of the land surface published in 16 high-ranking remote sensing journals within the past decade. We analyzed the literature regarding research focus, the spatial scope of the study, the forecasting method applied, as well as the temporal and technical properties of the input data. We categorized the identified forecasting methods according to their temporal forecasting mechanism and the type of input data. Time-lagged regressions which are predominantly used for crop yield forecasting and approaches based on Markov Chains for future land use and land cover simulation are the most established methods. The use of external climate projections allows the forecasting of numerical land surface parameters up to one hundred years into the future, while auto-regressive time series modeling can account for intra-annual variances. Machine learning methods have been increasingly used in all categories and multivariate modeling that integrates multiple data sources appears to be more popular than univariate auto-regressive modeling despite the availability of continuously expanding time series data. Regardless of the method, reliable EO-based forecasting requires high-level remote sensing data products and the resulting computational demand appears to be the main reason that most forecasts are conducted only on a local scale. In the upcoming years, however, we expect this to change with further advances in the field of machine learning, the publication of new global datasets, and the further establishment of cloud computing for data processing.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/137319/
Document Type:Article
Title:Forecasting Spatio-Temporal Dynamics on the Land Surface Using Earth Observation Data—A Review
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iD
Köhler, JonasJonas.Koehler (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-6086-2364
Kuenzer, Claudiaclaudia.kuenzer (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Date:26 October 2020
Journal or Publication Title:Remote Sensing
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:Yes
In SCOPUS:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Volume:12
DOI :10.3390/rs12213513
Page Range:p. 3513
Publisher:Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI)
ISSN:2072-4292
Status:Published
Keywords:forecast; Earth Observation; land surface; land use; land cover; time series; machine learning; Markov chains; modeling
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Space
HGF - Program Themes:Earth Observation
DLR - Research area:Raumfahrt
DLR - Program:R EO - Earth Observation
DLR - Research theme (Project):R - Monitoring and Data Evaluation (old)
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:German Remote Sensing Data Center
German Remote Sensing Data Center > Land Surface Dynamics
Deposited By: Köhler, Jonas
Deposited On:09 Nov 2020 10:16
Last Modified:09 Nov 2020 10:16

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