The Future of Driving in the BRICS Countries (Study Update 2019)

Abstract

The aim of the original study, The Future of Driving in Developing Countries (Ecola et al. 2014), and also of this update, is to investigate the factors that will influence the future path of automobility in emerging economies. Generally speaking, as wealth, expressed as GDP (gross domestic product) per capita, increases, both the number of vehicles per 1,000 population (motorisation) and total vehicle-kilometres travelled (VKT) rise. In this project we identified factors other than GDP which have a strong influence on automobility. By assessing the expected role of those factors in the emerging economies (for our study, the BRICS countries: Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), we can extrapolate expected saturation curves for them. To formulate these projections, we combined statistical data and trends analysis with qualitative expert judgement. Sixteen country experts gathered together in a two-day workshop to create projections of the factor developments in the BRICS countries. Our projections for VKT saturation levels range between 5,700 VKT per capita for India and 12,700 VKT per capita for South Africa, reached in the 2060s and 2050s respectively. The most populous country, China, is projected to saturate at between 6,000 and 6,700 VKT, in the 2030s. Translating those VKT numbers into saturation levels for motorisation results in cars per 1,000 population figures ranging from 290 (India) to 730 (South Africa).