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Modelling Global Transport Pathways to meet the Paris Climate Agreement Goals

Deniz, Özcan and Pagenkopf, Johannes and van den Adel, Bent (2020) Modelling Global Transport Pathways to meet the Paris Climate Agreement Goals. Transport Research Arena TRA 2020, 27.-30. April 2020, Helsinki, Finland. ISBN 978-952-311-484-5. ISSN 2669-8781.

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Official URL: https://www.traficom.fi/sites/default/files/media/publication/TRA2020-Book-of-Abstract-Traficom-research-publication.pdf


Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions of global transport have risen rapidly in recent decades. But according to the Paris Climate Agreement, advanced decarbonisation pathways have to be followed so that progressing global warming is halted. We developed global transport transition pathways until 2050 that are in line with limiting global warming to +1.5°C and +2.0°C against pre-industrial temperature levels. Our modelling uses CO2 budgets for transport developed within the One Earth Climate Model. We model final energy demands considering potential transport performance and technological developments in a business-as -usual, a +2°C- and a +1.5°C-scenario until 2050. The results show that the final energy demand in the +2.0°C would need to be 66% lower in 2050 (-74% in 1.5°C-scenario) compared to the energy demand in 2050 in the business-as -usual scenario. This means that reaching the 2.0°C and 1.5°C pathways require drastic reductions in global transport energy demand and a decarbonisation of energy carriers.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/135311/
Document Type:Conference or Workshop Item (Speech)
Additional Information:Weitere Veröffentlichung der Inhalte: https://www.springer.com/la/book/9783030058425
Title:Modelling Global Transport Pathways to meet the Paris Climate Agreement Goals
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iD
Deniz, ÖzcanOezcan.Deniz (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Pagenkopf, JohannesJohannes.Pagenkopf (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-6265-7348
van den Adel, BentBent.vandenadel (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Date:27 April 2020
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:No
In ISI Web of Science:No
Page Range:p. 14
Keywords:Global transport; transport energy demand; Paris Climate Agreement; decarbonisation pathways; scenario modelling; energy efficiency
Event Title:Transport Research Arena TRA 2020
Event Location:Helsinki, Finland
Event Type:international Conference
Event Dates:27.-30. April 2020
Organizer:Finnish Transport and Communications Agency Traficom
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Transport
HGF - Program Themes:Transport System
DLR - Research area:Transport
DLR - Program:V VS - Verkehrssystem
DLR - Research theme (Project):V - Transport und Klima
Location: Stuttgart
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Vehicle Concepts > Fahrzeugsysteme und Technologiebewertung
Deposited By: Deniz, Özcan
Deposited On:08 Jul 2020 15:30
Last Modified:08 Jul 2020 15:30

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