Modelling Global Transport Pathways to meet the Paris Climate Agreement Goals

Abstract

Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions of global transport have risen rapidly in recent decades. But according to the Paris Climate Agreement, advanced decarbonisation pathways have to be followed so that progressing global warming is halted. We developed global transport transition pathways until 2050 that are in line with limiting global warming to +1.5°C and +2.0°C against pre-industrial temperature levels. Our modelling uses CO2 budgets for transport developed within the One Earth Climate Model. We model final energy demands considering potential transport performance and technological developments in a business-as -usual, a +2°C- and a +1.5°C-scenario until 2050. The results show that the final energy demand in the +2.0°C would need to be 66% lower in 2050 (-74% in 1.5°C-scenario) compared to the energy demand in 2050 in the business-as -usual scenario. This means that reaching the 2.0°C and 1.5°C pathways require drastic reductions in global transport energy demand and a decarbonisation of energy carriers.