On Space Weather Data Assimilation

Abstract

Most if not all terrestrial weather prediction services today are based on data assimilation and numerical weather prediction models. Space Weather services are expected to follow a similar path towards data assimilation. However, the application of data assimilation in Space Weather requires a different implementation compared to terrestrial weather because space systems tend to be strongly forced and because the amount of data available for assimilation is critically small. In this paper we review the implementation of an ensemble Kalman filter data assimilation system based on the Space Weather Prediction Center operational Coupled Thermosphere Ionosphere Plasmasphere Electrodynamics (CTIPe) model. We present assimilation results for neutral mass density during geomagnetically quiet and disturbed conditions and discuss the future use of data assimilation for the thermosphere ionosphere system.