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The Impact of Land Use/Land Cover Change (LULCC) on Water Resources in a Tropical Catchment in Tanzania under Different Climate Change Scenarios

Näschen, Kristian and Diekkrüger, Bernd and Evers, Mariele and Höllermann, Britta and Steinbach, Stefanie and Thonfeld, Frank (2019) The Impact of Land Use/Land Cover Change (LULCC) on Water Resources in a Tropical Catchment in Tanzania under Different Climate Change Scenarios. Sustainability, 11 (24), pp. 1-28. Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI). DOI: 10.3390/su11247083 ISSN 2071-1050

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Official URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/24/7083


Many parts of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are prone to land use and land cover change (LULCC). In many cases, natural systems are converted into agricultural land to feed the growing population. However, despite climate change being a major focus nowadays, the impacts of these conversions on water resources, which are essential for agricultural production, is still often neglected, jeopardizing the sustainability of the socio-ecological system. This study investigates historic land use/land cover (LULC) patterns as well as potential future LULCC and its effect on water quantities in a complex tropical catchment in Tanzania. It then compares the results using two climate change scenarios. The Land Change Modeler (LCM) is used to analyze and to project LULC patterns until 2030 and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is utilized to simulate the water balance under various LULC conditions. Results show decreasing low flows by 6–8% for the LULC scenarios, whereas high flows increase by up to 84% for the combined LULC and climate change scenarios. The effect of climate change is stronger compared to the effect of LULCC, but also contains higher uncertainties. The effects of LULCC are more distinct, although crop specific effects show diverging effects on water balance components. This study develops a methodology for quantifying the impact of land use and climate change and therefore contributes to the sustainable management of the investigated catchment, as it shows the impact of environmental change on hydrological extremes (low flow and floods) and determines hot spots, which are critical for environmental development.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/134360/
Document Type:Article
Title:The Impact of Land Use/Land Cover Change (LULCC) on Water Resources in a Tropical Catchment in Tanzania under Different Climate Change Scenarios
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iD
Näschen, KristianRheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonnhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-4523-3097
Diekkrüger, BerndRheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonnhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-9234-7850
Evers, MarieleRheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität BonnUNSPECIFIED
Höllermann, BrittaRheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonnhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-5545-3515
Steinbach, StefanieITC, University of TwenteUNSPECIFIED
Thonfeld, FrankFrank.Thonfeld (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-3371-7206
Journal or Publication Title:Sustainability
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
DOI :10.3390/su11247083
Page Range:pp. 1-28
Publisher:Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI)
Keywords:Tanzania, Kilombero, SWAT model, Extreme flows, Land Change Modeler, Scenario analysis
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Space
HGF - Program Themes:Earth Observation
DLR - Research area:Raumfahrt
DLR - Program:R EO - Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Research theme (Project):R - Remote sensing and geoscience
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:German Remote Sensing Data Center > Land Surface Dynamics
Deposited By: Thonfeld, Dr. Frank
Deposited On:17 Mar 2020 08:54
Last Modified:17 Mar 2020 08:54

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