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Uncertainty in the response of sudden stratospheric warmings and stratosphere‐troposphere coupling to quadrupled CO2 concentrations in CMIP6 models

Ayarzagüena, Blanca and Charlton-Perez, A. J. and Butler, A. and Hitchcock, Peter and Simpson, Isla R. and Polvani, Lorenzo M. and Butchart, N. and Gerber, E. P. and Gray, Lesley and Hassler, Birgit and Lin, P. and Lott, F. and Manzini, E. and Mizuta, R. and Orbe, Clara and Osprey, S.M. and Saint-Martin, David and Sigmond, M. and Taguchi, M. and Volodin, E.M. and Watanabe, S. (2020) Uncertainty in the response of sudden stratospheric warmings and stratosphere‐troposphere coupling to quadrupled CO2 concentrations in CMIP6 models. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 125 (6), e2019JD032345/1-21. Wiley. DOI: 10.1029/2019JD032345 ISSN 0148-0227

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Official URL: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019JD032345

Abstract

Major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), vortex formation, and final breakdown dates are key highlight points of the stratospheric polar vortex. These phenomena are relevant for stratosphere‐troposphere coupling, which explains the interest in understanding their future changes. However, up to now, there is not a clear consensus on which projected changes to the polar vortex are robust, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere, possibly due to short data record or relatively moderate CO2 forcing. The new simulations performed under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6, together with the long daily data requirements of the DynVarMIP project in preindustrial and quadrupled CO2 (4xCO2) forcing simulations provide a new opportunity to revisit this topic by overcoming the limitations mentioned above. In this study, we analyze this new model output to document the change, if any, in the frequency of SSWs under 4xCO2 forcing. Our analysis reveals a large disagreement across the models as to the sign of this change, even though most models show a statistically significant change. As for the near‐surface response to SSWs, the models, however, are in good agreement as to this signal over the North Atlantic: There is no indication of a change under 4xCO2 forcing. Over the Pacific, however, the change is more uncertain, with some indication that there will be a larger mean response. Finally, the models show robust changes to the seasonal cycle in the stratosphere. Specifically, we find a longer duration of the stratospheric polar vortex and thus a longer season of stratosphere‐troposphere coupling.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/134326/
Document Type:Article
Title:Uncertainty in the response of sudden stratospheric warmings and stratosphere‐troposphere coupling to quadrupled CO2 concentrations in CMIP6 models
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iD
Ayarzagüena, BlancaUniversidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, SpainUNSPECIFIED
Charlton-Perez, A. J.Univ. of Reading, Reading, UKUNSPECIFIED
Butler, A.CIRES/NOAA, Boulder, USAUNSPECIFIED
Hitchcock, PeterDepartment of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University, USAUNSPECIFIED
Simpson, Isla R.NCAR, Boulder, CO, USAUNSPECIFIED
Polvani, Lorenzo M.Columbia University, New York, USAUNSPECIFIED
Butchart, N.Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UKUNSPECIFIED
Gerber, E. P.New York Univ., New York, NY, USAUNSPECIFIED
Gray, LesleyNCAS-Climate, Department of Physics, University of Oxford, UKUNSPECIFIED
Hassler, BirgitDLR, IPAUNSPECIFIED
Lin, P.Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University, USA,UNSPECIFIED
Lott, F.Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Ecole Normale Supérieure, FranceUNSPECIFIED
Manzini, E.MPI für Meteorologie, HamburgUNSPECIFIED
Mizuta, R.Meteorological Research Institute, JapanUNSPECIFIED
Orbe, ClaraNASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, New York, USAUNSPECIFIED
Osprey, S.M.Univ. of Oxford, Oxford, UKUNSPECIFIED
Saint-Martin, DavidCNRM, Toulouse, FrankreichUNSPECIFIED
Sigmond, M.Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis Environment and Climate Change, CanadaUNSPECIFIED
Taguchi, M.Institute of Space and Astronautical Science , Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (ISAS / JAXA)UNSPECIFIED
Volodin, E.M.Marchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematics, RussiaUNSPECIFIED
Watanabe, S.Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), JapanUNSPECIFIED
Date:27 March 2020
Journal or Publication Title:Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Volume:125
DOI :10.1029/2019JD032345
Page Range:e2019JD032345/1-21
Publisher:Wiley
ISSN:0148-0227
Status:Published
Keywords:CMIP6, sudden stratospheric warmings, changing climate
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Space
HGF - Program Themes:Earth Observation
DLR - Research area:Raumfahrt
DLR - Program:R EO - Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Research theme (Project):R - Vorhaben Atmosphären- und Klimaforschung
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Atmospheric Physics
Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Earth System Model Evaluation and Analysis
Deposited By: Hassler, Birgit
Deposited On:23 Mar 2020 22:37
Last Modified:27 May 2020 15:34

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