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Thunderstorms: Life cycle analyses and nowcasting based on multi-source data

Zöbisch, Isabella (2020) Thunderstorms: Life cycle analyses and nowcasting based on multi-source data. Dissertation, DLR, IPA und Ludwig-Maximilian-Universität München.

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Official URL: https://elib.dlr.de/134215/

Abstract

The nowcasting of the remaining lifetime of an existing thunderstorm can be improved by the use of lifetime characteristics. For this purpose parameters from geostationary satellite, ground-based radar, lightning, and model data are investigated. These parameters describe the microphysical state and the environmental conditions of the thunderstorm. A thunderstorm is defined using the Cb-TRAM algorithm. In total, more than 2000 thunderstorms over Germany are analyzed. The mathematical method fuzzy logic is used to combine the multi-source parameters. By adding the information of historical data, the remaining lifetime is then predicted. The nowcasting quality was determined by means of cross-validation. Compared to the extrapolation methods currently used, an increase in the probability of prediction can be obtained. Depending on the size of the tolerance range around the predicted value, the improvement varies between approx. 20% and 80%.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/134215/
Document Type:Thesis (Dissertation)
Title:Thunderstorms: Life cycle analyses and nowcasting based on multi-source data
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iD
Zöbisch, IsabellaDLR, IPAhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-5798-1119
Date:2020
Refereed publication:No
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:No
In ISI Web of Science:No
Number of Pages:111
Status:Published
Keywords:Thunderstorms, lifetime characteristics, multi-source, nowcasting, fuzzy logic
Institution:DLR, IPA und Ludwig-Maximilian-Universität München
Department:Fakultät Physik
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Aeronautics
HGF - Program Themes:air traffic management and operations
DLR - Research area:Aeronautics
DLR - Program:L AO - Air Traffic Management and Operation
DLR - Research theme (Project):L - Climate, Weather and Environment
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Atmospheric Physics
Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Transport Meteorology
Deposited By: Volkert, Dr. Hans
Deposited On:26 Feb 2020 09:15
Last Modified:26 Feb 2020 12:29

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