Zöbisch, Isabella (2020) Thunderstorms: Life cycle analyses and nowcasting based on multi-source data. Dissertation, DLR, IPA und Ludwig-Maximilian-Universität München.
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Official URL: https://elib.dlr.de/134215/
Abstract
The nowcasting of the remaining lifetime of an existing thunderstorm can be improved by the use of lifetime characteristics. For this purpose parameters from geostationary satellite, ground-based radar, lightning, and model data are investigated. These parameters describe the microphysical state and the environmental conditions of the thunderstorm. A thunderstorm is defined using the Cb-TRAM algorithm. In total, more than 2000 thunderstorms over Germany are analyzed. The mathematical method fuzzy logic is used to combine the multi-source parameters. By adding the information of historical data, the remaining lifetime is then predicted. The nowcasting quality was determined by means of cross-validation. Compared to the extrapolation methods currently used, an increase in the probability of prediction can be obtained. Depending on the size of the tolerance range around the predicted value, the improvement varies between approx. 20% and 80%.
Item URL in elib: | https://elib.dlr.de/134215/ | ||||||||
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Document Type: | Thesis (Dissertation) | ||||||||
Title: | Thunderstorms: Life cycle analyses and nowcasting based on multi-source data | ||||||||
Authors: |
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Date: | 2020 | ||||||||
Refereed publication: | No | ||||||||
Open Access: | Yes | ||||||||
Number of Pages: | 111 | ||||||||
Status: | Published | ||||||||
Keywords: | Thunderstorms, lifetime characteristics, multi-source, nowcasting, fuzzy logic | ||||||||
Institution: | DLR, IPA und Ludwig-Maximilian-Universität München | ||||||||
Department: | Fakultät Physik | ||||||||
HGF - Research field: | Aeronautics, Space and Transport | ||||||||
HGF - Program: | Aeronautics | ||||||||
HGF - Program Themes: | air traffic management and operations | ||||||||
DLR - Research area: | Aeronautics | ||||||||
DLR - Program: | L AO - Air Traffic Management and Operation | ||||||||
DLR - Research theme (Project): | L - Climate, Weather and Environment (old) | ||||||||
Location: | Oberpfaffenhofen | ||||||||
Institutes and Institutions: | Institute of Atmospheric Physics Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Transport Meteorology | ||||||||
Deposited By: | Volkert, Dr. Hans | ||||||||
Deposited On: | 26 Feb 2020 09:15 | ||||||||
Last Modified: | 27 Mar 2023 10:13 |
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