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Scenario analysis of energy system transition - A case study of two coastal metropolitan regions, eastern China

Xiao, Mengzhu and Simon, Sonja and Pregger, Thomas (2019) Scenario analysis of energy system transition - A case study of two coastal metropolitan regions, eastern China. Energy Strategy Reviews, 26, p. 100423. Elsevier. doi: 10.1016/j.esr.2019.100423. ISSN 2211-467X.

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Official URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211467X19301154


The scenario analysis focuses on two metropolitan regions of eastern China which are characterized by high energy consumption and related CO2 emissions. Current policies are rather short-term driven and weak regarding sectoral coupling and regional integration. As in China economic activities and population on the one hand and renewable energy resources on the other have a very imbalanced distribution, long-term integrated energy system modelling needs to consider specific regional challenges of efficiency improvement, coal reduction, transport decarbonization and multi-sector electrification. Three scenarios are constructed, namely a Current Policy Scenario (CPS), Natural Gas & Nuclear Scenario (NGNS) and Renewable & Import Scenario (RIS) based on a normative storyline-and-modelling approach. The simulation results show that regional CO2 emissions could be significantly reduced in all sectors with the adjustment of economic structure, adopted efficiency measures, fuels to replace coal and oil products and multi-sector electrification supported by enhanced power import capacity. The scenario analysis provides insights for a strategic implementation of long-term integrated energy transition options towards decarbonization for metropolitan regions both from supply and demand sides.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/133536/
Document Type:Article
Title:Scenario analysis of energy system transition - A case study of two coastal metropolitan regions, eastern China
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iD
Xiao, MengzhuMengzhu.Xiao (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Simon, SonjaSonja.Simon (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-2775-5457
Pregger, ThomasThomas.Pregger (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-6728-7451
Date:November 2019
Journal or Publication Title:Energy Strategy Reviews
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
DOI :10.1016/j.esr.2019.100423
Page Range:p. 100423
Keywords:Energy system transition; Renewable energy; Eastern China; Scenario analysis; CO2 targets; Regional integration
HGF - Research field:Energy
HGF - Program:Technology, Innovation and Society
HGF - Program Themes:Renewable Energy and Material Resources for Sustainable Futures - Integrating at Different Scales
DLR - Research area:Energy
DLR - Program:E SY - Energy Systems Analysis
DLR - Research theme (Project):E - Systems Analysis and Technology Assessment (old)
Location: Stuttgart
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Engineering Thermodynamics > Energy Systems Analysis
Deposited By: Pregger, Dr.-Ing. Thomas
Deposited On:05 Feb 2020 11:04
Last Modified:05 Feb 2020 11:04

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