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The evolutionary path of automobility in BRICS countries

Seum, Stefan und Schulz, Angelika und Kuhnimhof, Tobias (2020) The evolutionary path of automobility in BRICS countries. Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2020, 12.-16.01.2020, Washington D.C., USA.

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Kurzfassung

Transport today is a major force with regard to fossil fuel demand and emissions to climate gases and projections indicate a more than doubling of transport demand by 2050. Projections on the future number of cars as well as their use are of paramount importance for assessing technology options and for drafting policy measures. The focus of this study is the presentation of a forecasting approach, utilizing quantitative data and qualitative expert judgements. Based on the template of the development of vehicle kilometer travelled (VKT) in four OECD countries, the potential development path for BRICS countries is assessed and VKT saturation levels are derived. For this purpose, we developed eight qualifying factors that have an influence on car ownership and car use. We assessed each of the BRICS countries’ factor relevance in comparison with the factor scores for the OECD countries. The factor evaluation was conducted in an expert workshop. The BRICS countries are characterized by unique socio-economic situations and thus we expect different development paths of car use. Of the BRICS countries, we expect the lowest VKT saturation levels for India and China, due to among others their spatial structures and policy interventions. Inequality and somewhat weaker policies is leading to higher VKT saturations in Brazil, Russia and South Africa. The latter also suffering from socio-economic inequalities that hinder the establishment of alternatives to the private car.

elib-URL des Eintrags:https://elib.dlr.de/133281/
Dokumentart:Konferenzbeitrag (Vortrag)
Titel:The evolutionary path of automobility in BRICS countries
Autoren:
AutorenInstitution oder E-Mail-AdresseAutoren-ORCID-iDORCID Put Code
Seum, StefanDLR, VFhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-9396-0128NICHT SPEZIFIZIERT
Schulz, AngelikaDLR, VFhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-8881-592XNICHT SPEZIFIZIERT
Kuhnimhof, Tobiaskuhnimhof (at) isb.rwth-aachen.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-3028-3040NICHT SPEZIFIZIERT
Datum:15 Januar 2020
Referierte Publikation:Ja
Open Access:Nein
Gold Open Access:Nein
In SCOPUS:Nein
In ISI Web of Science:Nein
Status:akzeptierter Beitrag
Stichwörter:vehicle kilometer travelled, private car use, car ownership, BRICS countries
Veranstaltungstitel:Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2020
Veranstaltungsort:Washington D.C., USA
Veranstaltungsart:internationale Konferenz
Veranstaltungsdatum:12.-16.01.2020
HGF - Forschungsbereich:Luftfahrt, Raumfahrt und Verkehr
HGF - Programm:Verkehr
HGF - Programmthema:Verkehrssystem
DLR - Schwerpunkt:Verkehr
DLR - Forschungsgebiet:V VS - Verkehrssystem
DLR - Teilgebiet (Projekt, Vorhaben):V - Transport und Klima (alt)
Standort: Berlin-Adlershof
Institute & Einrichtungen:Institut für Verkehrsforschung > Personenverkehr
Hinterlegt von: Seum, Stefan
Hinterlegt am:14 Jan 2020 14:39
Letzte Änderung:14 Jan 2020 14:39

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