The evolutionary path of automobility in BRICS countries

Abstract

Transport today is a major force with regard to fossil fuel demand and emissions to climate gases and projections indicate a more than doubling of transport demand by 2050. Projections on the future number of cars as well as their use are of paramount importance for assessing technology options and for drafting policy measures. The focus of this study is the presentation of a forecasting approach, utilizing quantitative data and qualitative expert judgements. Based on the template of the development of vehicle kilometer travelled (VKT) in four OECD countries, the potential development path for BRICS countries is assessed and VKT saturation levels are derived. For this purpose, we developed eight qualifying factors that have an influence on car ownership and car use. We assessed each of the BRICS countries’ factor relevance in comparison with the factor scores for the OECD countries. The factor evaluation was conducted in an expert workshop. The BRICS countries are characterized by unique socio-economic situations and thus we expect different development paths of car use. Of the BRICS countries, we expect the lowest VKT saturation levels for India and China, due to among others their spatial structures and policy interventions. Inequality and somewhat weaker policies is leading to higher VKT saturations in Brazil, Russia and South Africa. The latter also suffering from socio-economic inequalities that hinder the establishment of alternatives to the private car.