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Derivation of scaled design premises for future vehicle concepts based on a forecast of travel demand using the example of a commercial fully automated on-demand fleet

Peters, Peter Lukas and Kröger, Lars and Demuth, Rainer and Schramm, Dieter (2019) Derivation of scaled design premises for future vehicle concepts based on a forecast of travel demand using the example of a commercial fully automated on-demand fleet. Automotive and Engine Technology, 4 (1-2), pp. 45-61. Springer. DOI: 10.1007/s41104019000420 ISSN 2365-5127

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Official URL: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41104-019-00042-0

Abstract

This paper presents an approach for linking the vehicle concept design in the early phase of development with findings from the forecast of mobility behavior under the boundary conditions of a future scenario for Germany. The focus is on an objective and data-based methodology for the derivation of design premises for vehicle concepts, illustrated by using the example of a commercial fully automated on-demand fleet. Today, vehicle concepts are designed on the basis of technical premises derived from the customer requirements of the relevant target group determined by market research and the competitive comparison. Technological trends (e.g., fully automated driving) and business model innovations (e.g., mobility as a service) have the potential to change the individual mobility behavior of users significantly so that todays vehicle concepts will no longer meet the future requirements. Thus, the conventional approach of determining design premises for vehicle concepts alone may no longer be appropriate. Therefore, as the starting point of the overall methodology, the future mobility behavior is simulated in an aspatial travel demand model. By converting the simulated mobility behavior into relevant design premises and using a cluster analysis adapted for the specific application case, total vehicle concepts are objectively derived and optimized regarding the coverage of mobility needs. The concepts are scaled taking technical concept leaps into account. This application example shows that almost 85% of urban autonomous car sharing trips can be covered using a vehicle concept with significantly reduced requirements. Based on the scaled vehicle portfolio and the respective relevance of covering mobility needs, a recommendation for an efficient fleet design can be made.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/133210/
Document Type:Article
Title:Derivation of scaled design premises for future vehicle concepts based on a forecast of travel demand using the example of a commercial fully automated on-demand fleet
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthors ORCID iD
Peters, Peter Lukaspeter-lukas.peters (at) bmw.deUNSPECIFIED
Kröger, LarsLars.Kroeger (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Demuth, RainerBMWUNSPECIFIED
Schramm, DieterUniversität Duisburg-EssenUNSPECIFIED
Date:June 2019
Journal or Publication Title:Automotive and Engine Technology
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:No
Gold Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:No
In ISI Web of Science:No
Volume:4
DOI :10.1007/s41104019000420
Page Range:pp. 45-61
Publisher:Springer
ISSN:2365-5127
Status:Published
Keywords:Fully automated driving Future vehicle concepts On-demand mobility Derivation of design premises Modelling travel demand Future mobility behavior
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Transport
HGF - Program Themes:Transport System
DLR - Research area:Transport
DLR - Program:V VS - Verkehrssystem
DLR - Research theme (Project):V - Zukunftsbilder eines automatisierten integrierten Verkehrssystems
Location: Berlin-Adlershof
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Transport Research > Passenger Transport
Deposited By: Kröger, Lars
Deposited On:16 Jan 2020 15:02
Last Modified:16 Jan 2020 15:02

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