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Moving towards socio-technical scenarios of the German energy transition---lessons learned from integrated energy scenario building

Pregger, Thomas and Naegler, Tobias and Weimer-Jehle, Wolfgang and Prehofer, Sigrid and Hauser, Wolfgang (2019) Moving towards socio-technical scenarios of the German energy transition---lessons learned from integrated energy scenario building. Climatic Change. Springer. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-019-02598-0 ISSN 0165-0009

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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02598-0


Energy scenarios describing transition pathways towards low-emission energy systems are commonly used to design mitigation strategies. There is a growing awareness in the research community that energy transitions should be understood as socio-technical transitions and that energy scenario construction should reflect this fact. This paper presents an application of a socio-technical scenario building method for improving long-term scenarios and strategies for the energy transition in Germany. Developing integrated scenarios on a national level starts with employing the cross impact balancing (CIB) approach for identifying consistent societal scenarios. As a first step, relevant context factors are selected and defined (39 descriptors and alternative future developments). Interviews with experts are used to develop a qualitative impact network for the CIB. The resulting context scenarios are then transferred to quantitative energy scenarios by using two different energy models that account for energy demand and supply structures for Germany. A final evaluation focuses on primary energy demand, renewable energy shares, and direct energy-related CO2 emissions. The approach integrates statements of societal and energy model experts and results in an interdisciplinary knowledge integration. This in turn provides insight into the method's capacity to improve the consistency of energy scenarios and to identify potential societal risks related to the energy transition process.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/132662/
Document Type:Article
Title:Moving towards socio-technical scenarios of the German energy transition---lessons learned from integrated energy scenario building
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthors ORCID iD
Pregger, ThomasDLR, TThttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-6728-7451
Naegler, TobiasTobias.Naegler (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-2390-1672
Weimer-Jehle, WolfgangZIRIUS Uni StuttgartUNSPECIFIED
Prehofer, SigridZIRIUS Uni StuttgartUNSPECIFIED
Hauser, WolfgangZIRIUS Uni StuttgartUNSPECIFIED
Journal or Publication Title:Climatic Change
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:No
Gold Open Access:No
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
DOI :10.1007/s10584-019-02598-0
Keywords:Cross Impact Balance, CIB, Energy System Modelling, Energiesystemmodellierung, Energy Transition, Energiewende, socio-technical scenario, sozio-technisches Szenario
HGF - Research field:Energy
HGF - Program:Technology, Innovation and Society
HGF - Program Themes:Renewable Energy and Material Resources for Sustainable Futures - Integrating at Different Scales
DLR - Research area:Energy
DLR - Program:E SY - Energy Systems Analysis
DLR - Research theme (Project):E - Systems Analysis and Technology Assessment
Location: Stuttgart
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Engineering Thermodynamics > Energy Systems Analysis
Deposited By: Naegler, Tobias
Deposited On:19 Dec 2019 16:17
Last Modified:19 Dec 2019 16:17

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