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Flightpath 2050 revisited – An analysis of the 4-hour-goal using flight schedules and origin-destination passenger demand data

Grimme, Wolfgang and Maertens, Sven (2020) Flightpath 2050 revisited – An analysis of the 4-hour-goal using flight schedules and origin-destination passenger demand data. Transportation Research Procedia, 43, pp. 147-155. Elsevier. doi: 10.1016/j.trpro.2019.12.029. ISSN 2352-1457.

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Official URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352146519305964


Key benefits of aviation are the provision of connectivity and the reduction of travel times compared to other transport modes. The High Level Group on Aviation Research has laid out in its Flightpath 2050 document the goal that “90% of travellers within Europe are able to complete their journey, door-to-door within 4 hours”. To our best knowledge, this objective has not been further specified in any other official document. The wording leaves considerable room for interpretation when assessing the level of goal achievement. We discuss different approaches for interpretation and apply a connectivity modelling approach to examine the respective degree of goal achievement. For the analysis, we use flight schedules and origin-destination passenger demand data at airport-pair level. Different assumptions on airport access and egress times have been made in order to simulate the door-to-door travel chain. In contrast to very detailed studies on the topic, conducted e.g. by the project DATASET2050, our methodology can be applied easily on available demand and schedules data, so that the progress of the 4-hour-goal can be monitored quickly. Moreover, our approach allows for a quick analysis of sensitivities. We find that a relatively large share of intra-European air passengers travel over distances where the 4-hour-goal cannot be achieved realistically, as even when non-stop flights exist, distances are too far to accomplish a trip within four hours with speeds of sub-sonic passenger aircraft. Moreover, an improvement of connectivity with more non-stop flights seems to be limited, as already today, about 93.5% of intra-European travellers fly on non-stop flights. Limited improvement could be achieved in accelerating airport processes or in applying small air transport / air taxi concepts from smaller airports, which could reduce airport access and egress travel times and distances.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/132611/
Document Type:Article
Title:Flightpath 2050 revisited – An analysis of the 4-hour-goal using flight schedules and origin-destination passenger demand data
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iD
Grimme, Wolfgangwolfgang.grimme (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-8498-6281
Maertens, SvenSven.Maertens (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-4618-0946
Date:10 January 2020
Journal or Publication Title:Transportation Research Procedia
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:No
In ISI Web of Science:No
DOI :10.1016/j.trpro.2019.12.029
Page Range:pp. 147-155
Keywords:Flightpath 2050; Connectivity
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Aeronautics
HGF - Program Themes:air traffic management and operations
DLR - Research area:Aeronautics
DLR - Program:L AO - Air Traffic Management and Operation
DLR - Research theme (Project):L - Air Traffic Concepts and Operation (old)
Location: Köln-Porz
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Air Transport and Airport Research > Air Transport Research
Deposited By: Grimme, Wolfgang
Deposited On:13 Jan 2020 10:28
Last Modified:12 Mar 2021 10:32

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