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Simulating the Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrological Regimes of a Sparsely Gauged Mountainous Basin, Northern Pakistan

Saddique, Naeem and Usman, Muhammad and Bernhofer, Christian (2019) Simulating the Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrological Regimes of a Sparsely Gauged Mountainous Basin, Northern Pakistan. Water, 11 (10), pp. 1-26. Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI). DOI: 10.3390/w11102141 ISSN 2073-4441

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Official URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/11/10/2141/htm

Abstract

Projected climate changes for the 21st century may cause great uncertainties on the hydrology of a river basin. This study explored the impacts of climate change on the water balance and hydrological regime of the Jhelum River Basin using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Two downscaling methods (SDSM, Statistical Downscaling Model and LARS-WG, Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator), three Global Circulation Models (GCMs), and two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for three future periods (2030s, 2050s, and 2090s) were used to assess the climate change impacts on flow regimes. The results exhibited that both downscaling methods suggested an increase in annual streamflow over the river basin. There is generally an increasing trend of winter and autumn discharge, whereas it is complicated for summer and spring to conclude if the trend is increasing or decreasing depending on the downscaling methods. Therefore, the uncertainty associated with the downscaling of climate simulation needs to consider, for the best estimate, the impact of climate change, with its uncertainty, on a particular basin. The study also resulted that water yield and evapotranspiration in the eastern part of the basin (sub-basins at high elevation) would be most affected by climate change. The outcomes of this study would be useful for providing guidance in water management and planning for the river basin under climate change.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/132493/
Document Type:Article
Title:Simulating the Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrological Regimes of a Sparsely Gauged Mountainous Basin, Northern Pakistan
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthors ORCID iD
Saddique, NaeemUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Usman, Muhammadmuhammad.usman (at) uni-wuerzburg.deUNSPECIFIED
Bernhofer, ChristianUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Date:October 2019
Journal or Publication Title:Water
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:Yes
In SCOPUS:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Volume:11
DOI :10.3390/w11102141
Page Range:pp. 1-26
Publisher:Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI)
ISSN:2073-4441
Status:Published
Keywords:Water balance, hydrological regime, evapotranspiration, uncertanities, climate change, SWAT
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Space
HGF - Program Themes:Earth Observation
DLR - Research area:Raumfahrt
DLR - Program:R EO - Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Research theme (Project):R - Vorhaben Geowissenschaftl. Fernerkundungs- und GIS-Verfahren
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:German Remote Sensing Data Center
Deposited By: Wöhrl, Monika
Deposited On:09 Dec 2019 13:37
Last Modified:14 Dec 2019 04:21

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