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On the Use of Dual-Doppler Radar Measurements for Very Short-TermWind Power Forecasts

Valldecabres, Laura and Nygaard, Nicolai Gayle and Vera-Tudela, Luis and von Bremen, Lüder and Kühn, Martin (2018) On the Use of Dual-Doppler Radar Measurements for Very Short-TermWind Power Forecasts. Remote Sensing, 10 (1701), pp. 1-22. Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI). DOI: 10.3390/rs10111701 ISSN 2072-4292

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Official URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/20/11/1701


Very short-term forecasts of wind power provide electricity market participants with extremely valuable information, especially in power systems with high penetration of wind energy. In very short-term horizons, statistical methods based on historical data are frequently used. This paper explores the use of dual-Doppler radar observations of wind speed and direction to derive five-minute ahead deterministic and probabilistic forecasts of wind power. An advection-based technique is introduced, which estimates the predictive densities of wind speed at the target wind turbine. In a case study, the proposed methodology is used to forecast the power generated by seven turbines in the North Sea with a temporal resolution of one minute. The radar-based forecast outperforms the persistence and climatology benchmarks in terms of overall forecasting skill. Results indicate that when a large spatial coverage of the inflow of the wind turbine is available, the proposed methodology is also able to generate reliable density forecasts. Future perspectives on the application of Doppler radar observations for very short-term wind power forecasting are discussed in this paper.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/130929/
Document Type:Article
Title:On the Use of Dual-Doppler Radar Measurements for Very Short-TermWind Power Forecasts
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthors ORCID iD
Valldecabres, Lauralaura.valldecabres (at) forwind.deUNSPECIFIED
Nygaard, Nicolai Gaylenicny (at) orsted.dkUNSPECIFIED
Vera-Tudela, Luisluis.vera-tudela (at) uni-oldenburg.deUNSPECIFIED
von Bremen, Lüderlueder.von.bremen (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Kühn, Martinmartin.kuehn (at) uni-oldenburg.deUNSPECIFIED
Date:29 October 2018
Journal or Publication Title:Remote Sensing
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
DOI :10.3390/rs10111701
Page Range:pp. 1-22
Li, Evanevan.li@mdpi.com
Publisher:Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI)
Keywords:Doppler radar; five-minute ahead wind power forecasting; probabilistic forecasting; remote sensing forecasting; offshore wind speed forecasting
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Transport
HGF - Program Themes:Transport System
DLR - Research area:Transport
DLR - Program:V VS - Verkehrssystem
DLR - Research theme (Project):V - Energie und Verkehr
Location: Oldenburg
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Networked Energy Systems > Energy Systems Analysis
Deposited By: von Bremen, Lüder
Deposited On:16 Dec 2019 12:28
Last Modified:16 Dec 2019 12:28

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