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Short-Term Forecasting ofWake-Induced Fluctuations in Offshore Wind Farms

Salim Dar, Arslan and von Bremen, Lüder (2019) Short-Term Forecasting ofWake-Induced Fluctuations in Offshore Wind Farms. Energies, 12 (14), pp. 1-11. Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI). doi: 10.3390/en12142833. ISSN 1996-1073.

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Official URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/12/14/2833


The increasing share of offshore wind energy traded at the spot market requires short term wind direction forecasts to determine wake losses and increased power fluctuations due to multiple wakes in certain wind directions. The information on potential power fluctuations can be used to issue early warnings to grid operators. The current work focuses on analyzing wind speed and power fluctuation time series for a German offshore wind farm. By associating these fluctuations with wind directions, it is observed that the turbines in double or multiple wake situations yield higher fluctuations in wind speed and power compared to the turbines in free flow. The wind direction forecasts of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast model are compared with Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) data observations of the turbine yaw. The cumulative probability distribution of the difference in forecasted and observed wind directions shows that for a tolerance of +/-10�, 71% of the observations are correctly forecasted for a lead time of 1 day, which drops to 54% for a lead time of 3 days. The circular continuous rank probability score of the observed wind directions doubles over the lead time of 72 h.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/130925/
Document Type:Article
Title:Short-Term Forecasting ofWake-Induced Fluctuations in Offshore Wind Farms
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iDORCID Put Code
von Bremen, LüderUNSPECIFIEDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-7072-0738UNSPECIFIED
Date:23 July 2019
Journal or Publication Title:Energies
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Page Range:pp. 1-11
EditorsEmailEditor's ORCID iDORCID Put Code
Publisher:Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI)
Keywords:energy meteorology; offshore wind energy; power fluctuations; wake detection; wind direction forecasting; North Sea
HGF - Research field:Energy
HGF - Program:Technology, Innovation and Society
HGF - Program Themes:Renewable Energy and Material Resources for Sustainable Futures - Integrating at Different Scales
DLR - Research area:Energy
DLR - Program:E SY - Energy Systems Analysis
DLR - Research theme (Project):E - Systems Analysis and Technology Assessment (old)
Location: Oldenburg
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Networked Energy Systems > Energy Systems Analysis
Deposited By: von Bremen, Lüder
Deposited On:16 Dec 2019 12:27
Last Modified:07 Apr 2020 14:43

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