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Short-Term Forecasting ofWake-Induced Fluctuations in Offshore Wind Farms

Salim Dar, Arslan and von Bremen, Lüder (2019) Short-Term Forecasting ofWake-Induced Fluctuations in Offshore Wind Farms. Energies, 12 (14), pp. 1-11. Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI). DOI: 10.3390/en12142833 ISSN 1996-1073

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Official URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/12/14/2833

Abstract

The increasing share of offshore wind energy traded at the spot market requires short term wind direction forecasts to determine wake losses and increased power fluctuations due to multiple wakes in certain wind directions. The information on potential power fluctuations can be used to issue early warnings to grid operators. The current work focuses on analyzing wind speed and power fluctuation time series for a German offshore wind farm. By associating these fluctuations with wind directions, it is observed that the turbines in double or multiple wake situations yield higher fluctuations in wind speed and power compared to the turbines in free flow. The wind direction forecasts of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast model are compared with Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) data observations of the turbine yaw. The cumulative probability distribution of the difference in forecasted and observed wind directions shows that for a tolerance of +/-10�, 71% of the observations are correctly forecasted for a lead time of 1 day, which drops to 54% for a lead time of 3 days. The circular continuous rank probability score of the observed wind directions doubles over the lead time of 72 h.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/130925/
Document Type:Article
Title:Short-Term Forecasting ofWake-Induced Fluctuations in Offshore Wind Farms
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthors ORCID iD
Salim Dar, Arslanarslan.dar (at) epfl.chUNSPECIFIED
von Bremen, Lüderlueder.von.bremen (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Date:23 July 2019
Journal or Publication Title:Energies
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:Yes
In SCOPUS:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Volume:12
DOI :10.3390/en12142833
Page Range:pp. 1-11
Editors:
EditorsEmail
Chang, Ivyivy.chang@mdpi.com
Publisher:Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI)
ISSN:1996-1073
Status:Published
Keywords:energy meteorology; offshore wind energy; power fluctuations; wake detection; wind direction forecasting; North Sea
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Transport
HGF - Program Themes:Transport System
DLR - Research area:Transport
DLR - Program:V VS - Verkehrssystem
DLR - Research theme (Project):V - Energie und Verkehr
Location: Oldenburg
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Networked Energy Systems > Energy Systems Analysis
Deposited By: von Bremen, Lüder
Deposited On:16 Dec 2019 12:27
Last Modified:16 Dec 2019 12:27

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