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Nowcasting of Irradiance Using a Network of All-Sky-Imagers

Blum, Niklas and Schmidt, Thomas and Nouri, Bijan and Wilbert, Stefan and Peerlings, Esther and Schmidt, Thomas and Kuhn, Pascal Moritz and Kazantzidis, A. and Zarzalejo, L.F. and Pitz-Paal, Robert (2019) Nowcasting of Irradiance Using a Network of All-Sky-Imagers. In: Proceedings EU PVSEC, pp. 1403-1409. EU PVSEC, 9. - 13. September 2019, Marseille, France. DOI: 10.4229/EUPVSEC20192019-5DO.2.1

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Official URL: https://www.eupvsec-proceedings.com/proceedings?fulltext=Nowcasting&paper=48484


Electric power grids are increasingly penetrated by generation from photovoltaic (PV) systems. The volatility of solar irradiance can therefore cause problematic fluctuations of grid voltage and frequency. For local low voltage power grid sections highly accurate nowcasts of the short-term local PV-power generation may enable higher PV penetration by employing short-term flexibility options while saving investments in grid-infrastructure. Systems of up to four All-Sky-Imagers (ASI) have been used successfully to nowcast direct and global irradiance as well as the production of solar power plants. In Oldenburg and the surrounding area these systems are enhanced by interconnecting 34 All-Sky-Imagers in a measurement network called Eye2Sky. Intermediate results can be combined and exchanged between systems with overlapping observation areas but also between systems up to 100 km apart. To demonstrate the potential of the approach three state-of-the-art 2-ASI-systems from the network are selected. Nowcasts of the individual systems are averaged weighting each prediction by its expected accuracy in the single points of the forecast domain. In a validation period of 86 days the network outperforms a single 2-ASI-system. For all lead times greater than zero, significantly lower root mean square errors are found compared to the 2-ASI system. For highly variable time intervals the root mean square error is reduced by up to 50 %. The network´s combined nowcast is found to reduce forecast errors related to the often uncertain cloud edge positions and further systematic errors found in single 2-ASI-systems.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/130911/
Document Type:Conference or Workshop Item (Speech)
Title:Nowcasting of Irradiance Using a Network of All-Sky-Imagers
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iD
Blum, NiklasNiklas.Blum (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-1541-7234
Schmidt, ThomasTh.Schmidt (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Nouri, BijanBijan.Nouri (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-9891-1974
Wilbert, StefanStefan.Wilbert (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-3573-3004
Kuhn, Pascal MoritzPascal.Kuhn (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-9978-5706
Kazantzidis, A.Lab. of Atm. Physics, Uni Patras, GreeceUNSPECIFIED
Pitz-Paal, RobertRobert.Pitz-Paal (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-3542-3391
Journal or Publication Title:Proceedings EU PVSEC
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:No
Gold Open Access:No
In ISI Web of Science:No
DOI :10.4229/EUPVSEC20192019-5DO.2.1
Page Range:pp. 1403-1409
Keywords:Solar Radiation, Grid Control, Grid Integration, Nowcasting, All Sky Imager
Event Title:EU PVSEC
Event Location:Marseille, France
Event Type:international Conference
Event Dates:9. - 13. September 2019
HGF - Research field:Energy
HGF - Program:Renewable Energies
HGF - Program Themes:Concentrating Solar Thermal Technology
DLR - Research area:Energy
DLR - Program:E SW - Solar and Wind Energy
DLR - Research theme (Project):E - Impact of Desert Environment, E - Systems Analysis and Technology Assessment
Location: Köln-Porz
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Networked Energy Systems > Energy Systems Analysis
Institute of Solar Research > Qualification
Deposited By: Kruschinski, Anja
Deposited On:20 Nov 2019 15:20
Last Modified:09 Apr 2020 14:30

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