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An energy flow simulation tool for incorporating short-term PV forecasting in a diesel-PV-battery off-grid power supply system

Jamal, Taskin and Carter, Craig and Schmidt, Thomas and Shafiullah, GM and Calais, Martina and Urmee, Tanja (2019) An energy flow simulation tool for incorporating short-term PV forecasting in a diesel-PV-battery off-grid power supply system. Applied Energy, 254 (113718). Elsevier. DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.113718 ISSN 0306-2619

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Official URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0306261919314059?via%3Dihub


One of the primary technical challenges of integrating high levels of PV generation into standalone off-grid power supply systems is their variable power output characteristics. In dealing with this issue, the integration of reliable PV forecasting techniques and preferably energy storage, are highly effective. Applying a short-term PV forecasting method, together with a compensatory controllable resource, can help in the management of system operation. This study incorporates the development of an energy flow modelling tool that has been used to analyse the benefits of 1-minute ahead PV forecasting and battery storage for different system configurations. Based on the five days of 1-minute ahead forecasting results analysed, it is found that PV forecasting enables the prosumer to install more than double the PV capacity, compared to the allowed installed PV capacity when no forecasting is employed. This additional PV capacity saves around 24-25% (on average) of diesel fuel per day for the diesel-PV-battery configuration. The outcomes evidently indicate that incorporating 1-minute ahead PV forecasting enables a significant increase of PV hosting capacity of the system, without compromising the reliability of the system.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/130782/
Document Type:Article
Title:An energy flow simulation tool for incorporating short-term PV forecasting in a diesel-PV-battery off-grid power supply system
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iD
Jamal, TaskinT.Jamal (at) murdoch.edu.auUNSPECIFIED
Carter, CraigCraig.Carter (at) murdoch.edu.auUNSPECIFIED
Schmidt, ThomasTh.Schmidt (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Shafiullah, GMGM.Shafiullah (at) murdoch.edu.auUNSPECIFIED
Calais, MartinaM.Calais (at) murdoch.edu.auUNSPECIFIED
Urmee, TanjaT.Urmee (at) murdoch.edu.auUNSPECIFIED
Date:15 November 2019
Journal or Publication Title:Applied Energy
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:No
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
DOI :10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.113718
EditorsEmailEditor's ORCID iD
Yan, Jinyuejinyue@kth.seUNSPECIFIED
Keywords:Energy flow modelling tool, Short-term PV forecasting, PV hosting capacity, PV penetration level, Standalone off-grid power supply system, remote area electricity
HGF - Research field:Energy
HGF - Program:Technology, Innovation and Society
HGF - Program Themes:Renewable Energy and Material Resources for Sustainable Futures - Integrating at Different Scales
DLR - Research area:Energy
DLR - Program:E SY - Energy Systems Analysis
DLR - Research theme (Project):E - Systems Analysis and Technology Assessment
Location: Oldenburg
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Networked Energy Systems > Energy Systems Analysis
Deposited By: Schmidt, Thomas
Deposited On:16 Dec 2019 12:26
Last Modified:07 Apr 2020 14:54

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