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How to assess the quality and transparency of energy scenarios: Results of a case study

Junne, Tobias and Xiao, Mengzhu and Xu, Lei and Wang, Zongfei and Jochem, Patrick and Pregger, Thomas (2019) How to assess the quality and transparency of energy scenarios: Results of a case study. Energy Strategy Reviews, 100380. Elsevier. doi: 10.1016/j.esr.2019.100380. ISSN 2211-467X.

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Official URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211467X19300732


The exploration and evaluation of strategies for decarbonizing the energy system is the subject of a series of national and international studies conducted by governmental, industrial and independent stakeholders. These studies play an important role in the energy policy debate on understanding and assessing different transformation paths of the energy system, technology options and their implications. They support strategic decisions on the type and scale of investments in the energy system under uncertain future conditions. However, in recent years the increasing complexity of these studies lead to a decreasing transparency even though their transparency and traceability is important for society, politics, research, and industry. In this article, three energy scenarios at different regional scales are reviewed according to their compliance with our pre-defined criteria of transparency. They are analysed in detail with regard to their objectives, methods, data used, results obtained and traceability. Our comparison shows that the results are often presented sufficiently in order to inform decision makers. However, the underlying model-based methods lack information on data exchange between the models, the transparent description of model couplings and a discussion on the rationality of method selection and the strengths and weaknesses of the applied approaches. Based on our findings, we present some general advice for energy scenario developers on how to ensure transparency and traceability in future energy scenario studies.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/129129/
Document Type:Article
Title:How to assess the quality and transparency of energy scenarios: Results of a case study
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iD
Junne, TobiasTobias.Junne (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-1576-8069
Xiao, MengzhuMengzhu.Xiao (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Xu, Leilei.xu (at) kit.eduUNSPECIFIED
Wang, Zongfeizongfei.wang (at) partner.kit.eduUNSPECIFIED
Jochem, Patrickjochem (at) kit.eduUNSPECIFIED
Pregger, ThomasThomas.Pregger (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-6728-7451
Date:2 September 2019
Journal or Publication Title:Energy Strategy Reviews
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
DOI :10.1016/j.esr.2019.100380
Keywords:Energy scenario, Transparency, Reproducibility, Modelling approach, Impact
HGF - Research field:Energy
HGF - Program:Technology, Innovation and Society
HGF - Program Themes:Renewable Energy and Material Resources for Sustainable Futures - Integrating at Different Scales
DLR - Research area:Energy
DLR - Program:E SY - Energy Systems Analysis
DLR - Research theme (Project):E - Systems Analysis and Technology Assessment (old)
Location: Stuttgart
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Engineering Thermodynamics > Energy Systems Analysis
Deposited By: Junne, Tobias
Deposited On:16 Dec 2019 15:35
Last Modified:16 Dec 2019 15:35

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