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Treating Uncertainties as an Asset:�the Use of Probabilistic Forecasts for Dispatch Optimization

do amaral Burghi, Ana Carolina und Hirsch, Tobias und Pitz-Paal, Robert (2019) Treating Uncertainties as an Asset:�the Use of Probabilistic Forecasts for Dispatch Optimization. 6th International Conference Energy & Meteorology, 24-27 June 2019, Copenhagen, Denmark.

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Kurzfassung

The high penetration of intermittent renewable energy in electricity grids brings the role of balancing production and demand for energy systems with flexible dispatch. Due to their thermal storage capability, concentrated solar power (CSP) plants provide certain flexibility between collecting thermal energy from the sun and transforming it into electric energy by means of a power cycle. The dispatchability of CSP plants is based on the electricity demand and weather forecasts, to accurately schedule the electricity production over the following days. Since weather forecasts include uncertainties, the dispatch planning needs to take them into account. Modification of energy deliveries once scheduled is very limited and usually associated with financial drawbacks. Therefore, the uncertainty treatment in the energy delivery schedule is essential to ensure the optimization of energy dispatch. As chance is not involved in any future state of the traditional deterministic weather forecasting method, the scientific community has been working on improvements to produce more accurate forecasts. The ensemble prediction system (EPS) captures the sources of uncertainty by producing ensemble forecasts. With that, uncertainties can be taken into account in order to plan robust and improved energy dispatch schedules. A dispatch optimization algorithm was developed to derive a CSP plant operation schedule for the day-ahead market. It considers weather and electricity pricing forecasts with a special focus in the incorporation of uncertainty information, by the use of probabilistic weather forecasts.

elib-URL des Eintrags:https://elib.dlr.de/128690/
Dokumentart:Konferenzbeitrag (Vortrag)
Titel:Treating Uncertainties as an Asset:�the Use of Probabilistic Forecasts for Dispatch Optimization
Autoren:
AutorenInstitution oder E-Mail-AdresseAutoren-ORCID-iDORCID Put Code
do amaral Burghi, Ana CarolinaAna.doAmaralBurghi (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-5058-9162NICHT SPEZIFIZIERT
Hirsch, Tobiastobias.hirsch (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-0063-0128NICHT SPEZIFIZIERT
Pitz-Paal, RobertRobert.Pitz-Paal (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-3542-3391NICHT SPEZIFIZIERT
Datum:Juni 2019
Referierte Publikation:Nein
Open Access:Nein
Gold Open Access:Nein
In SCOPUS:Nein
In ISI Web of Science:Nein
Status:veröffentlicht
Stichwörter:Dispatch optimization, uncertainties, probabilistic forecasts
Veranstaltungstitel:6th International Conference Energy & Meteorology
Veranstaltungsort:Copenhagen, Denmark
Veranstaltungsart:internationale Konferenz
Veranstaltungsdatum:24-27 June 2019
Veranstalter :World Energy Meteorology Council
HGF - Forschungsbereich:Energie
HGF - Programm:Erneuerbare Energie
HGF - Programmthema:Konzentrierende solarthermische Technologien
DLR - Schwerpunkt:Energie
DLR - Forschungsgebiet:E SW - Solar- und Windenergie
DLR - Teilgebiet (Projekt, Vorhaben):E - Neue Wärmeträgerfluide (alt)
Standort: Stuttgart
Institute & Einrichtungen:Institut für Solarforschung > Linienfokussierende Systeme
Hinterlegt von: do amaral Burghi, Ana Carolina
Hinterlegt am:13 Aug 2019 12:14
Letzte Änderung:13 Aug 2019 12:14

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