Scenario Analysis of Energy System Transition - A Case Study of Two Coastal Metropolitan Regions, Eastern China

Abstract

Accelerated urbanization and industrialization in China result in big challenges of increasing energy demand and emissions, especially in metropolitan regions. Regional focuses of the study are Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region and Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region with 20% of national population, 30% of economic output and 24% of energy consumption in 2015 that are suffering from severe air pollution and energy shortage problems. However, current policies are rather short-term driven and weak from sectoral coupling and regional integration to decarbonize the energy system. Therefore, a regional based long-term integrated energy system model is developed with three constructed scenarios of Current Policy (CPS), Natural Gas & Nuclear (NGNS) and Renewable & Import (RIS) based on normative approach to deal with regional specific challenges of efficiency improvement, coal reduction, transport decarbonization and multi-sector electrification. The simulation results show that regional CO2 emissions could be significantly reduced in all sectors with the adjustment of economic structure, adopted efficiency measures, exploitation of renewable energy potentials and alternative fuels to replace coal and oil products, electrification of heat and transport sectors supported by enhanced import capacity. Specifically, in order to deal with fluctuating characteristics of PV and wind that will be largely implemented in the future power system and additional infrastructural needs such as storage and grid expansion, energy system model REMix of higher temporal and spatial resolution in BTH region with Inner Mongolia as supply region for wind and solar energy is further modelled. A cost-minimizing algorithm is applied with myopic foresight by 10 years under system constraints of regional CO2 emissions and minimum share of renewable energies for power generation till 2050. The above scenario analysis based on energy system simulation and optimization models provides policy advice for strategic implementation of long-term integrated energy transition options towards decarbonization future in metropolitan regions.