Scenario-based Analysis of Electrification Effects on Value Creation and Employment Structures for the Automotive Cluster in Baden-Wuerttemberg, Germany

Abstract

The transformation path to electric mobility will have fundamental impacts on the existing value chain and employment structures in the automotive industry. This paper examines these effects on the basis of two different electric mobility market scenarios for the European (EU28) passenger car market 2030 with special focus on the highly export-oriented industrial automotive cluster Baden-Wuerttemberg. On the basis of a detailed analysis of the industrial branch, value creation and employee structure, shifts from internal combustion engine to electrified component production will be derived and illustrated for each single employee segment. The detailed display of the Baden-Wuerttemberg automotive cluster in this study allows for the first time regionalized statements on possible employment effects.