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Arctic sea ice in Earth system models: decadal hindcast skill and constraints of long-term projections

Senftleben, Daniel (2019) Arctic sea ice in Earth system models: decadal hindcast skill and constraints of long-term projections. Dissertation, Ludwig-Maximilian-Universität München.

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Abstract

The recent retreat of summer Arctic sea ice has critical implications for climate worldwide. This thesis investigates the potential of observations to improve Earth system model simulations of Arctic climate. It is shown that model initialization with observations can improve decadal hindcasts in the North Atlantic, Greenland and Beaufort Sea regions. The thesis also identifies ways to improve decadal climate predictions. Furthermore, a relatively new observation-based analysis method is used to constrain uncertainties in multi-model projections of 21st-century Arctic sea ice extent, by which model uncertainty could be reduced by up to 50%. However, irreducible internal variability is too large for exact predictions of, for example, the timing of a first disappearance of summer Arctic sea ice. The thesis concludes that mitigation strategies to reduce Arctic warming need to be intensified and that it becomes increasingly crucial to further improve the understanding of the Arctic climate system.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/126941/
Document Type:Thesis (Dissertation)
Title:Arctic sea ice in Earth system models: decadal hindcast skill and constraints of long-term projections
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthors ORCID iD
Senftleben, DanielDLR, IPAhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-5798-1119
Date:2019
Refereed publication:No
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:No
In ISI Web of Science:No
Number of Pages:83
Status:Published
Keywords:Arctic, sea ice, Earth system models, climate simulations, CMIP5, hindcast skill, constraining uncertainties, ESMValTool
Institution:Ludwig-Maximilian-Universität München
Department:Fakultät Physik
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Space
HGF - Program Themes:Earth Observation
DLR - Research area:Raumfahrt
DLR - Program:R EO - Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Research theme (Project):R - Vorhaben Atmosphären- und Klimaforschung
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Earth System Model Evaluation and Analysis
Deposited By: Senftleben, Daniel
Deposited On:30 Apr 2019 14:57
Last Modified:31 Jul 2019 20:24

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