What is the Potential of a Bird Strike Advisory System?

Abstract

This paper presents a collision avoidance algorithm to prevent bird strikes for aircraft departing from an airport. By using trajectory-information of aircraft and birds, the algorithm predicts potential collisions. Collision avoidance is performed by delaying departing aircraft until they can follow a collision-free trajectory. An implementation of this concept has the potential to increase aviation safety by preventing bird strikes but might reduce runway capacity due to delaying aircraft. As a precursor to the feasibility, this study investigates the maximum achievable safety effect at minimum delay costs of such a system by assuming a deterministic world. Therefore, no uncertainties regarding bird and aircraft positions were considered to enable the system to prevent all bird strikes for departing traffic while causing the smallest possible delay. The anticipated effects were studied by running fast-time simulations including three air traffic intensities at a single-runway airport and bird movements from all seasons. The results imply a high potential for the increase in safety at a reasonable reduction in runway capacity. An initial cost-estimate even revealed a strong saving potential for the airlines. Based on these results, a feasibility study of implementing a bird strike advisory system including uncertainties in bird movements as well as probabilistic effects will be performed.